Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:44:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
84 0x847c…6a24 other 108 markets active 1h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate14%15W / 92L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$175per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$91now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days+$13
14 days+$13
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% +$6
politics 24% −$5
economics 5% −$1
tech 4% −$1
sports 2% +$1
world 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)+0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +146.8% +123.3% 17% 17% -1.0%
≤30d 20 +44.0% +30.3% 15% 5% -9.0%
≤90d 107 +10.6% +0.1% 14% 11% -9.5%
all 107 +10.6% +0.1% 14% 11% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.1% 11% -9.5%
10% -9.5% 10% -18.2%
15% -18.2% 8% -26.1%
20% -26.3% 8% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×6.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$91
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses15 / 92
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)107 / 108
History coverage86d
Avg bet$175
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $91 $91 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 19 $41 $0 -0%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $27 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $33 $0 -0%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 +$23 +982%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $26 $0 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 11 $24 $0 -0%
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 10 $38 $0 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 06 $37 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $248 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $26 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $33 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 02 $51 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 02 $70 $0 +0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 31 $37 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $240 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $238 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $539 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $24 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $407 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 19 $206 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $333 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 16 $186 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $186 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 14 $192 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $394 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $200 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $199 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $196 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $196 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 May 09 $199 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 08 $202 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $202 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $415 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $198 $0 -0%
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 04 $203 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $203 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $191 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 02 $210 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $549 −$1 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $203 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 29 $392 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 28 $391 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 27 $384 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $193 $0 -0%
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Apr 19 $199 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $206 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 18 $207 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $347 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $346 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $41 1h
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $41 3h
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $27 25h
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $27 28h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 55¢ $9 28h
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $33 46h
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $33 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 9¢ $2 4d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? BUY No 100¢ $91 5d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $26 6d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 6d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $24 7d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $24 7d
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $38 8d
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $38 8d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $37 13d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $37 13d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $40 14d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $40 15d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $26 15d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $26 15d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $33 16d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $33 16d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $37 18d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $37 18d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $28 19d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $28 19d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $39 20d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $39 20d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? BUY No 100¢ $51 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $91.34 · official $91.34 (match) · 282 history records