Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:51:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x847c…9d31 other 1166 markets active 1h ago coverage 172d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$709 (+4%) realized +$769 · open −$60
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate38%426W / 689L
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day13.0pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$135now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$215
14 days−$196
30 days−$104
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$266
world 31% +$780
sports 21% −$10
politics 3% +$28
crypto 0% +$27
tech 0% +$1
finance 0% −$5
economics 0% +$34
culture 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 89 -11.3% -19.8% 30% 29% -32.6%
≤30d 398 +1.0% -8.7% 34% 33% -13.5%
≤90d 917 -7.8% -16.6% 33% 32% -33.0%
all 1115 -0.1% -9.6% 38% 37% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 37% -6.0%
10% -18.3% 36% -15.0%
15% -26.2% 35% -23.2%
20% -33.4% 33% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$9 · ×1.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

172d coverage
Net worth$135
Realized+$769
Unrealized−$60
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses426 / 689
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions51
Markets (closed)1115 / 1166
History coverage172d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 51 History 1115 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $80 $79 −$1 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? No 27¢ $47 $13 −$34 (-72%)
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? No 24¢ 42¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+75%)
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? Yes 45¢ $1 $5 +$4 (+401%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 17¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+272%)
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026? Yes 10¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+9%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 13¢ 14¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+47%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+16%)
Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by June 30? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-18%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Major CEX insolvent in 2026? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-22%)
Foreign intervention in Gaza by June 30? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-28%)
Israeli forces enter Beirut by June 30? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-29%)
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-33%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-35%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Yes 20¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-69%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes 28¢ $5 $1 −$5 (-88%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-41%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-44%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-49%)
GTA 6 launch postponed again? Yes 36¢ 18¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $15 +$22 +143%
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 +$9 +307%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$2 +8%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $2 +$3 +146%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $10 +$7 +73%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $10 −$1 -10%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $2 +$5 +271%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 16 $2 +$3 +140%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$2 +180%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 16 $2 +$2 +114%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $9 +$6 +66%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $3 +$5 +175%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $66 +$115 +173%
No one announced as next James Bond? Jun 15 $1 $0 -25%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1 $0 +24%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $2 $0 -13%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $2 +$3 +153%
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 15 $5 $0 -4%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 -11%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? Jun 15 $3 −$2 -66%
Ebola case in the US by June 30? Jun 15 $3 −$2 -48%
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +78%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 15 $5 −$3 -54%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 15 $5 $0 -8%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $8 +$2 +22%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 +$11 +1115%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $5 +$6 +124%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $10 −$5 -47%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $106 −$106 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 14, 2026? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $52 −$52 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $3 +$8 +270%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $7 +$4 +60%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $5 +$7 +134%
Türkiye to score first vs. Australia? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -12%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 28¢ $10 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 26¢ $20 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 26¢ $15 2h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $37 2h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 3h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 4h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY No 24¢ $5 5h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 5h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 5h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY No 20¢ $5 5h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 5h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 30¢ $2 5h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 41¢ $5 7h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 60¢ $22 9h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $20 10h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 24¢ $3 11h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 40¢ $2 12h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Donna Vekic 21¢ $2 17h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 37¢ $5 27h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 30¢ $2 27h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 21¢ $2 29h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 21¢ $1 30h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $5 30h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 57¢ $10 30h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 53¢ $5 31h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 19¢ $1 32h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 35¢ $5 32h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 35¢ $5 33h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes $1 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $135.15 · official $135.15 (match) · 2923 history records