Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:09:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x847c…9ff8 weather 664 markets active 0h ago coverage 59d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$760 (+9%) realized +$739 · open +$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate40%258W / 392L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day14.6pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$333now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$111
14 days−$99
30 days−$348
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 58% +$672
sports 29% −$57
other 9% +$183
crypto 2% −$45
politics 1% +$9
world 1% −$68
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-27.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 175 -16.0% -24.0% 53% 39% -13.8%
≤30d 405 -11.7% -20.1% 49% 37% -16.8%
≤90d 650 -19.9% -27.5% 40% 29% -1.5%
all 650 -19.9% -27.5% 40% 29% -1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.5% 29% -1.5%
10% -34.4% 25% -10.9%
15% -40.8% 22% -19.5%
20% -46.6% 18% -27.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$12 · ×1.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$333
Realized+$739
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses258 / 392
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions15
Markets (closed)650 / 664
History coverage59d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day14.6
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 650 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score No 48¢ 70¢ $80 $117 +$38 (+47%)
Will Trump meet with Ahmed al-Sharaa in 2026? Yes 84¢ 81¢ $60 $58 −$2 (-3%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? No 34¢ 52¢ $30 $46 +$16 (+54%)
Will Trump meet with Ahmed al-Sharaa in 2026? No 12¢ 18¢ $17 $26 +$9 (+50%)
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos - Game 1 Winner LGD Gaming 90¢ 98¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+8%)
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Team Refuser 65¢ 64¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Team Refuser 63¢ 62¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs Team Refuser 66¢ 64¢ $15 $15 −$1 (-4%)
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Yes 13¢ 7¢ $16 $8 −$8 (-48%)
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos - Game 2 Winner LGD Gaming 86¢ 93¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will Azerbaijan join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Game Handicap: REF (-1.5) vs Game Master (+1.5) Team Refuser 39¢ 40¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Yes 12¢ 7¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-42%)
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Yes 8¢ 2¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-69%)
Another S&P 500 Company buys Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Yes 26¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-18%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 46¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 375 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 71°F or below on May 1? Jun 16 $45 −$45 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 +$2 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 +$1 +24%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $15 −$15 -99%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin Jun 16 $8 +$6 +76%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $5 $0 +8%
Game Handicap: TR (-1.5) vs Team Refuser (+1.5) Jun 16 $3 $0 +5%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $15 +$12 +76%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $15 −$15 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $15 −$15 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $17 +$4 +24%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $82 +$147 +180%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3 +$6 +197%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5) Jun 16 $19 −$19 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $30 −$30 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 +$1 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $4 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 +$1 +28%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $31 +$41 +134%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $6 $0 +5%
Game Handicap: VG (-1.5) vs Grey Trac (+1.5) Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $6 +$1 +12%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $4 +$1 +24%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $15 +$6 +38%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $8 +$6 +79%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 15 $3 +$1 +40%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $8 +$6 +79%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $17 +$2 +12%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $16 +$1 +8%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $81 +$22 +27%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $80 −$80 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $64 +$18 +27%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $7 +$4 +60%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $8 +$1 +16%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$4 +90%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $77 −$76 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $10 +$1 +7%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $81 −$80 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $9 +$2 +24%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $9 +$1 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Team Refuser 66¢ $15 13m
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos - Game 1 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 90¢ $15 16m
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos - Game 2 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 86¢ $5 16m
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 48¢ $81 1h
Game Handicap: REF (-1.5) vs Game Master (+1.5) BUY Team Refuser 39¢ $3 4h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Refuser 65¢ $15 4h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Refuser 63¢ $15 4h
Will Trump meet with Ahmed al-Sharaa in 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $16 5h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 51¢ $15 5h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 6h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 6h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 77¢ $15 9h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 16? BUY No 53¢ $3 12h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 80¢ $3 12h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 86¢ $4 12h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 94¢ $4 12h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 75¢ $15 13h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 75¢ $3 14h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 63¢ $3 15h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $5 16h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 89¢ $4 16h
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5) BUY Houston Astros 61¢ $19 18h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 50¢ $30 19h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 80¢ $17 19h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $31 22h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 33¢ $3 24h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 35¢ $82 25h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Resilience 56¢ $15 27h
Game Handicap: TR (-1.5) vs Team Refuser (+1.5) BUY Team Resilience 95¢ $3 30h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin BUY Team Resilience 56¢ $8 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $333.28 · official $333.29 (match) · 1143 history records