Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T05:01:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

84
0x847b…274c
sports · 337 markets active 1h ago
0.5score
−$57 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$99 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3
Realized−$99
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses211 / 125
Est. fees paid−$50
Open positions1
Markets (closed)336 / 337
History coverage85d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 336 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$27
7 days−$27
14 days−$171
30 days−$99
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Gen.G 62¢ 62¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 205.5 Under 52¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Up 65¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Over 50¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Spread: Thunder (-5.5) Spurs 57¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Timberwolves 28¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner T1 50¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Spread: Celtics (-6.5) Hornets 59¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Spread: Bulls (-7.5) Wizards 58¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 174.5 Under 51¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Cavaliers 58¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5 Under 57¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Timberwolves vs. Spurs Timberwolves 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Thunder vs. Spurs Spurs 12¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-3.5) Phoenix Mercury 51¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Pistons vs. Cavaliers Cavaliers 36¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Up 63¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Phoenix Mercury 10¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner JD Gaming 55¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Phoenix Mercury vs. Las Vegas Aces Las Vegas Aces 81¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 221.5 Under 51¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Magic vs. Pistons Pistons 61¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 14 $8 −$5 -58%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $37 −$30 -80%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 14 $4 +$3 +66%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 14 $30 +$3 +11%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 174.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-8.5) Jun 13 $2 +$1 +27%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $5 +$1 +11%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $1 +$1 +97%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $1 +$1 +71%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Jun 13 $1 $0 +18%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Jun 13 $1 $0 -18%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $10 +$9 +93%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $1 −$1 -71%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $1 +$1 +87%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 02 $7 −$7 -98%
Spread: Dallas Wings (-10.5) Jun 02 $4 +$3 +76%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-3.5) Jun 01 $4 −$4 -98%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 01 $1 +$1 +76%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 168.5 May 31 $1 −$1 -98%
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks May 31 $50 −$46 -90%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 4 Winner May 31 $51 −$50 -99%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner May 31 $30 −$30 -99%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner May 31 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) May 31 $10 +$9 +86%
Indiana Fever vs. PortlandFire May 31 $16 +$12 +74%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $10 −$10 -99%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Connecticut Sun May 31 $3 −$3 -98%
Atlanta Dream vs. PortlandFire May 30 $6 +$3 +50%
Phoenix Mercury vs. New York Liberty May 30 $10 +$6 +60%
Phoenix Mercury vs. New York Liberty: O/U 170.5 May 30 $5 +$4 +70%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-1.5) May 29 $39 +$40 +102%
Indiana Fever vs. Golden State Valkyries May 29 $36 +$11 +31%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) May 29 $18 −$10 -58%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-4.5) May 29 $4 +$3 +79%
Indiana Fever vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 167.5 May 29 $5 −$5 -99%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings May 29 $16 +$6 +39%
Shanghai Sharks vs. Zhejiang Lions May 28 $61 +$5 +9%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-3.5) May 28 $7 +$6 +83%
Spread: New York Liberty (-4.5) May 28 $6 +$5 +90%
Spread: Chicago Sky (-6.5) May 28 $6 +$4 +70%
Atlanta Dream vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 166.5 May 28 $7 −$3 -42%
Phoenix Mercury vs. New York Liberty: O/U 168.5 May 28 $6 −$2 -27%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $56 +$8 +14%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5 May 27 $25 −$25 -99%
Spread: Thunder (-5.5) May 27 $25 −$25 -99%
Shanghai Sharks vs. Zhejiang Lions May 26 $5 +$3 +60%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-12.5) May 26 $30 +$25 +83%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 225.5 May 26 $33 +$15 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 93% −$97
crypto 7% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 62¢ $3 53m
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury SELL Phoenix Mercury 26¢ $3 54m
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Phoenix Mercury 60¢ $8 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 99¢ $8 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 85¢ $7 1h
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) SELL Knicks 91¢ $7 1h
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) SELL Knicks 96¢ $0 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 6¢ $0 1h
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) BUY Knicks 54¢ $4 2h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 80¢ $30 2h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces SELL Las Vegas Aces 86¢ $24 3h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY Las Vegas Aces 73¢ $20 3h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces SELL Minnesota Lynx 27¢ $10 3h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY Minnesota Lynx 26¢ $10 4h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 174.5 BUY Under 51¢ $5 4h
Spread: Indiana Fever (-8.5) SELL Indiana Fever 59¢ $3 5h
Spread: Indiana Fever (-8.5) BUY Indiana Fever 45¢ $2 6h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Bilibili Gaming 66¢ $6 17h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 58¢ $5 18h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Team WE 41¢ $2 19h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Team WE 20¢ $1 19h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner SELL Gen.G 99¢ $2 21h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 57¢ $1 22h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $3 22h
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm SELL Seattle Storm 5¢ $1 25h
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm BUY Seattle Storm 4¢ $1 25h
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics SELL Toronto Tempo 23¢ $1 27h
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics BUY Toronto Tempo 27¢ $1 28h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 8¢ $0 41h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 26¢ $1 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -4.1% -13.3% 56% 56% -30.1%
≤30d 103 +0.1% -9.4% 57% 55% -15.2%
≤90d 336 +6.4% -3.7% 63% 51% -12.4%
all 336 +6.4% -3.7% 63% 51% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.7% 51% -12.4%
10% -13.0% 43% -20.8%
15% -21.4% 33% -28.4%
20% -29.1% 25% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.98 · official $2.98 (match) · 771 history records