Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:44:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
84 0x8478…f236 tech 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 271d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+0%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate81%21W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$225now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% −$109
tech 23% +$61
other 23% +$48
economics 6% +$9
crypto 6% −$24
politics 5% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 -35.0% -41.2% 25% 25% -11.9%
≤90d 10 +1.1% -8.5% 70% 60% +0.5%
all 26 -1.6% -11.0% 81% 35% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 35% -9.4%
10% -19.5% 27% -18.0%
15% -27.3% 0% -26.0%
20% -34.4% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$43 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

271d coverage
Net worth$225
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses21 / 5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)26 / 29
History coverage271d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 86¢ 84¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 96¢ 99¢ $75 $77 +$2 (+3%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 82¢ 81¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -96%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $127 −$15 -12%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $151 +$21 +14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 31 $20 −$9 -46%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 19 $100 +$32 +32%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 07 $150 +$43 +29%
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026? May 05 $25 +$7 +28%
Trump re-sues WSJ by April 27? May 05 $50 +$14 +29%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $346 +$13 +4%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 05 $38 +$11 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Mar 10 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Mar 10 $5 +$1 +28%
Starmer out by February 28, 2026? Mar 10 $41 +$4 +10%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 10 $50 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Feb 27 $10 −$10 -99%
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 25 $175 −$175 -100%
Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Feb 25 $100 +$9 +9%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? Feb 17 $100 +$1 +2%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 17 $165 $0 +0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 15 $155 +$10 +6%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Feb 01 $50 +$5 +10%
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 2, 2026? Jan 09 $34 +$3 +9%
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by December 31 Jan 02 $81 +$4 +5%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Dec 30 $74 +$6 +8%
US strikes Nigeria by December 31? Dec 10 $71 +$3 +4%
Israel strikes Iran by October 31? Nov 22 $53 +$18 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 82¢ $50 1h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $101 9d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $75 9d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 14d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 15d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL No 25¢ $23 27d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $88 28d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $171 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $11 28d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $127 31d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $100 40d
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? SELL No 98¢ $193 52d
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? BUY No 76¢ $150 55d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $50 55d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 65d
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $100 65d
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $25 65d
Trump re-sues WSJ by April 27? BUY No 77¢ $50 65d
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $359 65d
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $346 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $5 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $10 121d
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $175 124d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? SELL No 98¢ $101 131d
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $165 131d
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $165 133d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? SELL No 97¢ $165 133d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $225.15 · official $225.16 (match) · 56 history records