trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +14.3% | +3.4% | 100% | 100% | +3.4% |
| ≤30d | 2 | +5.0% | -5.0% | 50% | 50% | -6.5% |
| ≤90d | 5 | +2.0% | -7.7% | 40% | 20% | -8.0% |
| all | 19 | +0.9% | -8.7% | 58% | 5% | -8.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -8.7% | 5% | -8.6% |
| 10% | -17.5% | 0% | -17.4% |
| 15% | -25.4% | 0% | -25.4% |
| 20% | -32.8% | 0% | -32.7% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | Yes | 60¢ | 60¢ | $52 | $53 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 | Jun 22 | $35 | +$5 | +14% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | May 27 | $49 | −$2 | -4% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | May 22 | $19 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | May 21 | $16 | $0 | +0% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | May 21 | $45 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? | Dec 14 | $16 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Steve Mnuchin buy TikTok? | Jun 28 | $11 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Meta buy TikTok? | Jun 26 | $15 | −$1 | -6% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? | Jun 02 | $1 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | Apr 22 | $11 | $0 | -1% |
| Will XRP reach $2.70 in April? | Apr 21 | $11 | $0 | +1% |
| Will xAI have the top AI model on April 30? | Apr 19 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? | Apr 18 | $12 | $0 | -1% |
| Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? | Apr 15 | $14 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 again by March 31? | Apr 03 | $15 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Trump say "the blacks" by March 28? | Mar 25 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 14-21? | Mar 22 | $14 | +$1 | +4% |
| Greens win over 15% of vote in German election? | Mar 15 | $14 | $0 | +1% |
| Did Kanye sell his twitter account? | Mar 10 | $14 | $0 | -0% |