Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:40:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
84 0x8475…39a0 sports 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$376 (+15%) realized +$309 · open +$67
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$413per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$48est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$255now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$426
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-0.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +10.1% -0.3% 40% 40% +4.8%
≤30d 5 +10.1% -0.3% 40% 40% +4.8%
≤90d 5 +10.1% -0.3% 40% 40% +4.8%
all 5 +10.1% -0.3% 40% 40% +4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.3% 40% +4.8%
10% -9.9% 40% -5.2%
15% -18.6% 40% -14.4%
20% -26.6% 40% -22.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$854 vs −$450 · ×1.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$255
Realized+$309
Unrealized+$67
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$48
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage4d
Avg bet$413
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs Virtus.pro 35¢ 47¢ $188 $255 +$67 (+36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $567 +$1,283 +226%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 19 $50 −$49 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $705 −$690 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $622 −$611 -98%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $343 +$426 +124%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $255.37 · official $255.37 (match) · 16 history records