Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:48:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
84 0x8473…8f23 sports 46 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,758 (+12%) realized +$1,502 · open +$256
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%11W / 29L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$318per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Fees−$63est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$3,658now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$3,165
14 days+$1,405
30 days+$1,405
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% +$1,415
sports 23% +$167
crypto 1% +$79
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -10.4% -19.0% 28% 28% +24.1%
≤30d 40 -12.1% -20.5% 28% 28% +2.7%
≤90d 40 -12.1% -20.5% 28% 28% +2.7%
all 40 -12.1% -20.5% 28% 28% +2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.5% 28% +2.7%
10% -28.1% 28% -7.2%
15% -35.1% 25% -16.1%
20% -41.4% 25% -24.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +13% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$568 vs −$167 · ×3.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$3,658
Realized+$1,502
Unrealized+$256
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses11 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$63
Open positions5
Markets (closed)40 / 46
History coverage10d
Avg bet$318
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Yes 34¢ 36¢ $2,500 $2,684 +$184 (+7%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $453 $450 −$3 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $200 $279 +$79 (+40%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $230 $227 −$3 (-1%)
France vs. Iraq: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $20 −$2 -10%
Egypt to score first vs. New Zealand? Jun 22 $27 −$27 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $21 −$2 -8%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $16 +$23 +144%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $20 +$18 +91%
Côte d'Ivoire to score first vs. Germany? Jun 20 $20 +$46 +224%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $21 −$20 -94%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $181 −$175 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $252 +$69 +27%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $25 −$18 -72%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $51 −$3 -5%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $26 −$25 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $26 −$25 -98%
Weston McKennie: 1+ assists Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $204 −$200 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $511 −$500 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $496 +$332 +67%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $254 −$249 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $513 −$346 -67%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $307 −$284 -92%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 +$63 +308%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $48 −$45 -94%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $53 −$34 -63%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $127 −$125 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,519 +$1,065 +70%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $647 +$776 +120%
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals Jun 17 $51 +$261 +509%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,016 +$1,110 +109%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $133 −$130 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $70 −$68 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $304 −$142 -47%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $25 −$15 -58%
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,094 +$2,484 +227%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $503 −$402 -80%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2,254 −$1,760 -78%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Iraq: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $19 3m
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 40¢ $18 5m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $260 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $206 1h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 34¢ $2,549 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 61¢ $19 23h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY 49¢ $51 23h
Egypt to score first vs. New Zealand? BUY Yes 66¢ $27 23h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $21 23h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 76¢ $39 23h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $16 25h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 99¢ $39 27h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $32 38h
Côte d'Ivoire to score first vs. Germany? SELL Yes 100¢ $66 2d
Côte d'Ivoire to score first vs. Germany? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 2d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 39¢ $10 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $20 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 49¢ $20 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $206 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $21 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 27¢ $27 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 28¢ $53 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $320 2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 18¢ $7 2d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $49 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $205 2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 63¢ $25 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 2d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 78¢ $252 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,658.31 · official $3,659.37 (match) · 83 history records