Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:30:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x8471…4f76 world 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 472d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$19 (-5%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate30%7W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% +$2
sports 13% −$13
tech 11% $0
politics 10% $0
other 5% −$5
crypto 2% −$2
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-25.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -15.7% -23.7% 33% 0% -8.0%
≤30d 6 -15.7% -23.7% 33% 0% -8.0%
≤90d 6 -15.7% -23.7% 33% 0% -8.0%
all 23 -17.3% -25.2% 30% 0% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.2% 0% -15.5%
10% -32.4% 0% -23.6%
15% -38.9% 0% -31.0%
20% -44.9% 0% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

472d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses7 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)23 / 24
History coverage472d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 96¢ 96¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $43 +$2 +4%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $43 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $79 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 24 $1 $0 -8%
Will PRO win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Jul 24 $34 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 27 $5 $0 -5%
Will reconciliation bill be passed by June 30? Jun 08 $5 $0 -4%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 French Open? Jun 07 $5 $0 +8%
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? Jun 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will Larry Ellison buy TikTok before July? Jun 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend Jun 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1700 in May? Jun 02 $5 $0 +3%
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? May 20 $5 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $1 $0 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2000 on May 9? May 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on May 31? May 08 $36 $0 +0%
Predators vs. Rangers Mar 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Tel Aviv bus bomber arrested by Friday? Mar 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Devils vs. Golden Knights Mar 02 $21 $0 -2%
SE Louisiana vs. UT Rio Grande Valley Mar 02 $21 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $45 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $15 34h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $15 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $45 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $29 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $14 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $2 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $2 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 76¢ $43 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 76¢ $43 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 66¢ $39 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 66¢ $39 5d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $6 6d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 7d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 24¢ $4 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 61¢ $3 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 61¢ $18 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 61¢ $18 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 61¢ $14 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 61¢ $26 7d
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? SELL Yes $0 328d
Will PRO win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 SELL No 99¢ $34 328d
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? SELL No 91¢ $5 355d
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? BUY No 96¢ $5 374d
Will reconciliation bill be passed by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $5 374d
Will reconciliation bill be passed by June 30? BUY No 84¢ $5 375d
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 French Open? BUY No 92¢ $5 376d
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 376d
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? BUY Yes $1 378d
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? SELL Yes 98¢ $5 378d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.88 · official $44.88 (match) · 61 history records