Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:04:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
84 0x846e…c589 crypto 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$63 (+7%) realized +$63 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate75%38W / 13L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$34
7 days+$43
14 days+$55
30 days+$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% +$47
finance 3% +$7
tech 3% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 +7.2% -3.0% 72% 26% -5.2%
≤30d 51 +14.5% +3.6% 75% 31% -4.3%
≤90d 51 +14.5% +3.6% 75% 31% -4.3%
all 51 +14.5% +3.6% 75% 31% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.6% 31% -4.3%
10% -6.3% 22% -13.5%
15% -15.4% 18% -21.9%
20% -23.7% 16% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +28% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×4.34 per $1 lost it wins $4.34
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$63
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses38 / 13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)51 / 51
History coverage12d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 51 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 24 $60 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 24 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 24 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 24 $30 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 23 $65 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 23 $61 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 23 $1 +$1 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 23 $93 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 23 $34 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 23 $93 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 23 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 23 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 23 $31 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 23 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 23 $31 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 23 $63 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 23 $33 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 23 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 23 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 22 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 -23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 22 $30 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 22 $1 +$1 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 22 $3 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 18 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 18 $4 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 18 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$15 +700%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +155%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +80%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? Jun 13 $29 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Up 11¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $30 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $30 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $30 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $30 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $62 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $30 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $30 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 6¢ $0 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Down 7¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $64 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $30 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $30 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $30 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Up 6¢ $0 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $30 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 158 history records