Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T20:24:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x846d…67b3 sports 300 markets active 2h ago coverage 473d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$671 (-7%) realized −$610 · open −$61
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%120W / 178L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$61est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$59
7 days+$12
14 days+$108
30 days+$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$282
other 3% −$300
crypto 0% −$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-22.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -1.9% -11.2% 57% 57% -8.2%
≤30d 45 -9.2% -17.8% 51% 51% -7.9%
≤90d 246 -41.1% -46.7% 29% 29% -35.4%
all 298 -14.4% -22.5% 40% 40% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.5% 40% -15.1%
10% -30.0% 40% -23.2%
15% -36.7% 39% -30.6%
20% -42.9% 34% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$26 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

473d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$610
Unrealized−$61
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses120 / 178
Est. fees paid−$61
Open positions2
Markets (closed)298 / 300
History coverage473d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 298 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 33¢ 26¢ $50 $38 −$11 (-23%)
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Spirit 50¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 67 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $88 +$64 +73%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $67 +$70 +105%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 18 $40 −$39 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $37 −$36 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $29 −$29 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $117 −$116 -99%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $104 +$43 +41%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $79 +$20 +26%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $56 +$27 +48%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $41 −$40 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $45 +$52 +114%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $60 −$59 -99%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $27 +$33 +123%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $50 +$22 +43%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 12 $21 +$29 +139%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $77 −$77 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $71 −$70 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $7 −$6 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $64 +$36 +57%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 11 $15 +$17 +114%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $23 +$17 +76%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $7 −$7 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $9 −$8 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $11 −$11 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $11 −$11 -99%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 10 $112 +$82 +73%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $63 +$50 +79%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $17 +$13 +79%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $23 +$10 +46%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $11 +$8 +73%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $11 −$11 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $21 +$9 +46%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $13 +$20 +156%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $32 −$32 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 06 $28 +$17 +62%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $14 +$14 +97%
Map Handicap: HERO (-1.5) vs Gaimin Gladiators (+1.5) Jun 06 $8 +$6 +70%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $5 +$3 +46%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $6 −$6 -99%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $6 −$6 -99%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $4 −$4 -98%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) May 24 $25 −$25 -99%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Legacy (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Playoffs May 23 $20 −$19 -98%
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs paiN (BO3) - CS Asia Championships May 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BC.Game Esports (BO1) - CS Asia Champi May 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 17 $30 −$30 -98%
Map Handicap: 9z (-1.5) vs magic (+1.5) May 15 $11 −$11 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner May 15 $8 −$8 -97%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 13 $17 −$17 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 33¢ $50 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 100¢ $151 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 57¢ $88 5h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY Spirit 50¢ $36 8h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY Spirit 49¢ $14 8h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 48¢ $67 26h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY FURIA 46¢ $40 28h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 45¢ $37 33h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 60¢ $29 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 58¢ $117 5d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 100¢ $147 5d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 70¢ $104 5d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 100¢ $100 5d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 79¢ $79 5d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 100¢ $83 5d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 67¢ $56 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Monte 31¢ $41 6d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 59¢ $60 6d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 100¢ $60 6d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 46¢ $45 6d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 44¢ $27 6d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $72 6d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 69¢ $50 7d
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $50 7d
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) BUY Spirit 53¢ $5 7d
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) BUY Spirit 56¢ $8 7d
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) BUY Spirit 56¢ $13 7d
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) BUY Spirit 56¢ $10 7d
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) BUY Spirit 56¢ $25 7d
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) BUY Spirit 62¢ $16 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.30 · official $38.30 (match) · 706 history records