Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:43:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

84
0x846c…0366
sports · 371 markets active 0h ago
2.5score
−$2,777 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$108 · open −$2,881
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3,882
Realized+$108
Unrealized−$2,881
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses255 / 107
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$858
Open positions9
Markets (closed)362 / 371
History coverage131d
Avg bet$312
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 9 History 362 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$229
7 days−$1,525
14 days−$5,907
30 days−$3,415
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Vitality 84¢ 82¢ $2,109 $2,060 −$49 (-2%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Vitality 83¢ 100¢ $600 $720 +$120 (+20%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Spirit 87¢ 57¢ $870 $575 −$295 (-34%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Spirit 78¢ 69¢ $417 $371 −$45 (-11%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 70¢ 64¢ $128 $116 −$12 (-10%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 51¢ 49¢ $26 $25 −$1 (-4%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Vitality 85¢ 0¢ $1,795 $11 −$1,784 (-99%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Spirit 78¢ 0¢ $818 $5 −$813 (-99%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 38¢ 16¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-59%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Team Falcons 61¢ 0¢ $305 $0 −$305 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $467 +$152 +32%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $92 −$70 -76%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $896 +$354 +40%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? Jun 12 $15 +$1 +7%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $385 −$275 -71%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $275 −$120 -44%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $309 −$305 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $787 +$77 +10%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $106 +$144 +135%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $278 +$22 +8%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 12 $122 −$122 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $152 −$152 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $172 −$172 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $148 −$148 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $701 −$701 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $437 +$63 +14%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $352 +$148 +42%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $164 −$133 -81%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$15 +152%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $333 +$167 +50%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $314 +$95 +30%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $83 +$17 +20%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $318 +$182 +57%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $1,042 +$266 +26%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $1,444 +$232 +16%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $221 +$59 +27%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $172 +$78 +46%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $902 +$348 +38%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $5 +$5 +114%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $327 +$45 +14%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $302 +$98 +32%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $893 +$107 +12%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $17 +$13 +73%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $716 +$182 +25%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $165 +$239 +145%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $490 +$260 +53%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $1,000 +$500 +50%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $169 −$128 -76%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $286 +$76 +27%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $903 +$97 +11%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $2,280 +$470 +21%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $2,199 +$551 +25%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $294 −$294 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $369 −$369 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $520 −$520 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $169 +$81 +48%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $369 +$111 +30%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $392 +$108 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 98% −$3,022
tech 1% +$156
other 1% +$91
crypto 0% −$2
finance 0% +$2
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 84¢ $301 3m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 84¢ $502 5m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 83¢ $1,206 6m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 82¢ $503 55m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $619 56m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 60¢ $46 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 76¢ $353 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 17¢ $22 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 87¢ $437 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 87¢ $437 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 92¢ $184 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Team Falcons 22¢ $45 2h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Team Falcons 22¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Team Falcons 22¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Team Falcons 22¢ $18 2h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Team Falcons 22¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Team Falcons 22¢ $15 2h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Team Falcons 22¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Team Falcons 22¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Team Falcons 22¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Team Falcons 22¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Team Falcons 22¢ $10 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 75¢ $112 3h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 75¢ $355 3h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 77¢ $194 3h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 76¢ $191 3h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 69¢ $92 3h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 61¢ $309 3h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 54¢ $272 4h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 83¢ $368 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 -6.9% -15.8% 65% 60% -12.7%
≤30d 117 -5.2% -14.2% 68% 61% -14.6%
≤90d 297 +2.5% -7.3% 70% 63% -9.6%
all 362 +4.3% -5.7% 70% 64% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.7% 64% -9.4%
10% -14.7% 52% -18.1%
15% -22.9% 33% -26.0%
20% -30.5% 19% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,882.31 · official $3,882.36 (match) · 1335 history records