Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:16:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
84 0x846b…a338 other 7 markets active 5d ago coverage 19d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-27%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$6
14 days−$4
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% −$6
world 11% +$2
weather 11% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -28.2% -35.0% 50% 50% -49.7%
≤30d 7 -2.2% -11.5% 57% 43% -36.5%
≤90d 7 -2.2% -11.5% 57% 43% -36.5%
all 7 -2.2% -11.5% 57% 43% -36.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 43% -36.5%
10% -20.0% 43% -42.6%
15% -27.7% 43% -48.1%
20% -34.8% 29% -53.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage19d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +44%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $1 +$2 +178%
Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,200-$4,600 in June? Jun 01 $1 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $1 +$1 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on May 25? May 24 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on May 25? May 24 $1 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 34¢ $3 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 5d
Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,200-$4,600 in June? SELL Yes 40¢ $1 15d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 62¢ $1 22d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? BUY No 36¢ $1 22d
Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,200-$4,600 in June? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 22d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on May 25? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 23d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on May 25? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 12 history records