Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:25:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x8469…cc10 other 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$49 (-6%) realized −$48 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR71%break-even
Win rate79%27W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$35
7 days−$116
14 days−$74
30 days−$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% −$32
sports 23% −$25
world 2% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -8.7% -17.4% 70% 65% -27.7%
≤30d 34 +3.1% -6.7% 79% 71% -15.5%
≤90d 34 +3.1% -6.7% 79% 71% -15.5%
all 34 +3.1% -6.7% 79% 71% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 71% -15.5%
10% -15.6% 38% -23.6%
15% -23.8% 18% -31.0%
20% -31.2% 12% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +28% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$32 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$48
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses27 / 7
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage16d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? No 86¢ 84¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $30 +$4 +12%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 +$5 +23%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $20 +$22 +109%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $30 +$10 +32%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 +$5 +23%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $20 +$3 +14%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $20 +$18 +90%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 24 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 24 $50 −$50 -100%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 24 $50 −$50 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 +$3 +14%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $20 +$1 +5%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $20 +$3 +16%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $30 +$15 +50%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$2 +11%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 +$4 +12%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$11 +52%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$3 +14%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$2 +23%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$4 +20%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 +$21 +105%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$2 +24%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$2 +8%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$1 +6%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$3 +13%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 +$3 +14%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $20 +$6 +29%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 +$2 +23%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 12 $50 +$9 +18%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$9 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 86¢ $30 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 89¢ $30 4h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $30 21h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 72¢ $30 21h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 81¢ $20 46h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 83¢ $20 46h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $20 46h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 81¢ $20 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $30 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 87¢ $20 2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $20 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 87¢ $20 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 95¢ $20 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $20 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $30 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 90¢ $20 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $30 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 6d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 87¢ $20 6d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 81¢ $10 6d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 83¢ $20 7d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 48¢ $20 8d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 80¢ $10 8d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 92¢ $20 8d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 94¢ $20 9d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $20 9d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $20 10d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 87¢ $20 11d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $25 11d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Japan 77¢ $20 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.48 · official $29.48 (match) · 66 history records