Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T16:25:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

84
0x8466…ba27
crypto · 93 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$35 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$35 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses51 / 42
Open positions0
Markets (closed)93 / 93
History coverage25d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 93 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days−$19
14 days−$19
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Up 65¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Down 64¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Up 39¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Up 65¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$4 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $12 +$7 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $13 +$17 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 13 $12 +$5 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $25 −$6 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $12 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $12 +$8 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $12 +$12 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 13 $12 +$8 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $12 +$4 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 13 $12 +$10 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 13 $13 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $12 +$4 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 13 $12 +$9 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 13 $12 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 13 $12 −$9 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $12 +$9 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 13 $12 +$8 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 13 $12 +$9 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 20 $3 −$2 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 20 $1 +$1 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 20 $1 +$1 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 20 $1 +$2 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 20 $1 +$1 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 99% −$33
world 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $19 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $17 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $12 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $12 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $12 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $13 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $12 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $12 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $12 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $12 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $13 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +0.6% -8.9% 64% 53% -13.9%
≤30d 93 -5.2% -14.3% 55% 48% -15.5%
≤90d 93 -5.2% -14.3% 55% 48% -15.5%
all 93 -5.2% -14.3% 55% 48% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 48% -15.5%
10% -22.5% 48% -23.6%
15% -30.0% 43% -31.0%
20% -36.8% 35% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 191 history records