Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:09:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
84 0x8464…c1bd crypto 191 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$32 (+4%) realized +$32 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate77%148W / 43L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day26.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$23
14 days+$22
30 days+$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 181 +6.1% -4.0% 77% 29% -6.5%
≤30d 191 +5.8% -4.2% 77% 30% -6.8%
≤90d 191 +5.8% -4.2% 77% 30% -6.8%
all 191 +5.8% -4.2% 77% 30% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.2% 30% -6.8%
10% ← realistic here -13.4% 20% -15.7%
15% -21.8% 14% -23.8%
20% -29.4% 11% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses148 / 43
Open positions0
Markets (closed)191 / 191
History coverage7d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day26.0
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 191 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$5 +296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$4 +331%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $4 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $4 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $4 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 382 history records