Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:37:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
84 0x8464…ad2c crypto 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$229 (+14%) realized +$229 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate72%21W / 8L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$36
7 days+$36
14 days+$101
30 days+$143
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$192
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +5.8% -4.2% 100% 0% -4.2%
≤30d 7 +13.0% +2.2% 100% 43% +1.1%
≤90d 29 +1.8% -7.9% 72% 52% +1.4%
all 29 +1.8% -7.9% 72% 52% +1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 52% +1.4%
10% -16.7% 31% -8.3%
15% -24.7% 24% -17.2%
20% -32.1% 17% -25.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$6 · ×1.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.12 per $1 lost it wins $5.12
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$229
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses21 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage63d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $203 +$12 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $205 +$12 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $203 +$11 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 06 $205 +$21 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 04 $204 +$45 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET May 28 $102 +$22 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET May 23 $102 +$20 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET May 18 $102 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET May 16 $103 +$55 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Apr 27 $3 +$2 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Apr 27 $4 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Apr 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Apr 26 $5 +$3 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Apr 25 $3 +$1 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Apr 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Apr 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Apr 24 $7 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Apr 22 $7 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Apr 22 $7 +$4 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Apr 22 $10 −$8 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Apr 21 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Apr 21 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Apr 21 $7 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Apr 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Apr 21 $10 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Apr 18 $15 +$7 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Apr 15 $15 +$5 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Apr 15 $15 −$9 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Apr 15 $10 +$11 +110%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $214 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $203 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $217 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $205 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 84¢ $215 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $203 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $226 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $205 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET SELL Down 86¢ $249 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $204 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $124 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $102 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $122 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $102 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET SELL Down 71¢ $90 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $102 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $147 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $10 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $103 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $5 51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $5 51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $4 51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $8 51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $4 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $7 53d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 61 history records