Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:45:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x8460…d023 crypto 1280 markets active 0h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$216 (-3%) realized −$215 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate77%989W / 288L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day32.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$5
14 days−$10
30 days−$183
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$294
other 0% +$3
sports 0% $0
tech 0% −$4
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -10.5% -19.0% 68% 55% -18.8%
≤30d 204 -15.6% -23.6% 66% 47% -22.9%
≤90d 1277 -5.1% -14.1% 77% 40% -13.6%
all 1277 -5.1% -14.1% 77% 40% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.1% 40% -13.6%
10% ← realistic here -22.3% 18% -21.9%
15% -29.8% 8% -29.4%
20% -36.7% 4% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized−$215
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses989 / 288
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1277 / 1280
History coverage72d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day32.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1277 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 82¢ 82¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs EDward Gaming 62¢ 57¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-7%)
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Paper Rex 64¢ 64¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +55%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$2 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 08 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 08 $2 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 08 $2 +$1 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 08 $2 +$3 +140%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 07 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 07 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 07 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 07 $2 +$1 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 07 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 07 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 07 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 07 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 05 $4 +$1 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 05 $4 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 05 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 05 $3 +$1 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 04 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 04 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 04 $2 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 04 $3 +$1 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 04 $3 $0 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $3 36m
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 64¢ $2 39m
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 61¢ $2 40m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 3h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 64¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $2 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 23h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 62¢ $6 30h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 30h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.39 · official $24.40 (match) · 2913 history records