Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T01:58:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x8460…63e3 crypto 90 markets active 0h ago coverage 522d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$375 (-7%) realized −$376 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate39%35W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days−$126
14 days−$126
30 days−$126
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 31% −$454
politics 22% +$323
other 19% −$128
world 7% −$377
sports 6% +$120
tech 5% −$49
finance 3% −$67
economics 3% $0
culture 2% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-22.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -3.4% -12.6% 49% 47% -14.7%
≤30d 43 -3.4% -12.6% 49% 47% -14.7%
≤90d 46 -9.7% -18.3% 46% 43% -24.9%
all 89 -14.7% -22.9% 39% 37% -20.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.9% 37% -20.4%
10% -30.2% 31% -28.0%
15% -37.0% 29% -34.9%
20% -43.2% 27% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$46 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

522d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized−$376
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses35 / 54
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)89 / 90
History coverage522d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Down 48¢ 48¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 27 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 27 $226 −$30 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 27 $78 +$55 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 27 $51 +$26 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 27 $26 +$16 +62%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $51 +$8 +16%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $76 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 27 $42 +$9 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 27 $41 −$39 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 27 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 27 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 27 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 27 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 27 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 27 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 27 $41 +$39 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 27 $26 +$19 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 26 $26 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$21 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$25 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$29 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 26 $27 −$27 -100%
Russell 2000 (RUT) Up or Down on June 26? Jun 26 $62 +$105 +171%
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on June 26? Jun 26 $61 +$57 +93%
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 26? Jun 26 $61 −$60 -98%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $725 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 26 $60 +$43 +71%
Norway vs. France: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $13 −$13 -98%
Norway vs. France: O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $13 −$13 -97%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $51 +$37 +73%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $13 −$13 -98%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $38 +$138 +365%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 24 $100 −$62 -62%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $65 +$35 +55%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 24? Jun 24 $92 −$90 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $66 +$26 +40%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 24 $51 −$50 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $51 −$31 -62%
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 23? Jun 23 $27 +$13 +50%
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 23? Jun 23 $54 +$46 +85%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 23? Jun 23 $26 −$6 -23%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $66 +$23 +35%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 23 $40 −$39 -99%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 02 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April? Apr 19 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April? Apr 18 $99 −$99 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? Sep 09 $51 −$46 -91%
Earthquake 7.0 or above by August 31? Aug 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Apr 02 $50 −$28 -57%
Will egg prices be more than $6.00 in March? Apr 02 $20 −$14 -70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $52 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $104 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $102 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Up 25¢ $49 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $124 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $78 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $51 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 42m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 72¢ $59 44m
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 56¢ $77 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $10 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Up 3¢ $2 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $41 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $51 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Down 4¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $27 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.52 · official $50.52 (match) · 200 history records