trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 2 | +141.6% | +118.6% | 100% | 50% | +191.9% |
| ≤90d | 23 | -62.3% | -65.9% | 17% | 13% | -16.0% |
| all | 23 | -62.3% | -65.9% | 17% | 13% | -16.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -65.9% | 13% | -16.0% |
| 10% | -69.1% | 9% | -24.1% |
| 15% | -72.1% | 9% | -31.4% |
| 20% | -74.8% | 9% | -38.1% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | Yes | 20¢ | 93¢ | $6 | $28 | +$22 (+365%) |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET | Down | 31¢ | 21¢ | $10 | $7 | −$3 (-33%) |
| Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 27¢ | 12¢ | $10 | $5 | −$5 (-54%) |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? | No | 3¢ | 2¢ | $5 | $4 | −$1 (-17%) |
| Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 12¢ | 4¢ | $10 | $4 | −$6 (-63%) |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | No | 2¢ | 2¢ | $4 | $4 | −$0 (-12%) |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 18¢ | 18¢ | $3 | $3 | −$0 (-3%) |
| Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | $3 | $3 | −$0 (-9%) |
| Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-2%) |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-12%) |
| Iran coup attempt by June 30? | Yes | 15¢ | 2¢ | $5 | $1 | −$4 (-86%) |
| Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30? | Yes | 2¢ | 1¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-35%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | May 24 | $21 | +$57 | +273% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | May 24 | $5 | $0 | +10% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | Apr 28 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 April 20-26? | Apr 28 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET | Apr 28 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 April 20-26? | Apr 28 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on April 27? | Apr 28 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 April 20-26? | Apr 28 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Ethereum Up or Down on April 27? | Apr 28 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET | Apr 28 | $1 | +$2 | +165% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET | Apr 28 | $2 | $0 | +20% |
| Israel military action against Fordow nuclear facility by April 30? | Apr 27 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET | Apr 27 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? | Apr 27 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, | Apr 27 | $6 | −$6 | -100% |
| Will gas hit (High) $4.50 by April 30? | Apr 27 | $1 | −$1 | -95% |
| Will gas hit (High) $4.75 by April 30? | Apr 27 | $1 | −$1 | -95% |
| Will gas hit (High) $5.00 by April 30? | Apr 27 | $1 | −$1 | -95% |
| Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? | Apr 27 | $1 | −$1 | -95% |
| Iran leadership change by May 31? | Apr 23 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? | Apr 23 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | Apr 23 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? | Apr 22 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |