Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:34:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x845d…69ba world 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 469d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate33%13W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% +$1
other 23% $0
crypto 11% +$1
politics 6% −$6
tech 3% +$1
culture 3% −$1
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.7% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 15 +1.3% -8.4% 33% 7% -9.3%
≤90d 15 +1.3% -8.4% 33% 7% -9.3%
all 39 -1.4% -10.8% 33% 5% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 5% -9.9%
10% -19.3% 5% -18.5%
15% -27.1% 0% -26.4%
20% -34.2% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

469d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses13 / 26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage469d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 47¢ 50¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $40 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $42 −$1 -3%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 18 $41 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 03 $37 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $42 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 01 $8 −$1 -16%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $1 $0 +29%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 31 $61 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $36 +$2 +6%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 27 $36 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 27 $40 $0 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 26 $2 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $37 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 25 $36 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 26 $11 −$1 -8%
Will Lee Jun-seok win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect Jun 07 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Tom Hanks be named in Epstein files? May 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 in May? May 18 $11 $0 -0%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 May 17 $5 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? May 16 $5 +$1 +26%
Will Tim Stokely buy TikTok before July? May 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el May 14 $5 $0 -0%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 14 $10 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? May 13 $15 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2025? May 12 $15 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? May 11 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? May 11 $15 $0 +3%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2025? May 10 $15 $0 -0%
Will Manchester United win the UEFA Europa League? May 10 $15 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec May 09 $14 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in May? May 09 $15 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 08 $14 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? May 08 $15 $0 -0%
Will Jose Tolentino de Mendonca be the next pope? May 07 $15 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer in the EPL? May 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 07 $16 $0 +3%
Will Trump sign Bitcoin reserve executive order Friday? Mar 11 $16 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $40 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $40 2h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $5 19h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $5 19h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 74¢ $41 27h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 76¢ $42 29h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $41 34h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $41 36h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 62¢ $9 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 62¢ $8 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 62¢ $21 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 61¢ $37 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $41 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $42 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 38¢ $6 18d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $8 18d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 18d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 18d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 18d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $4 19d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $11 19d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $13 19d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $3 19d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $31 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $43 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $43 19d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 45¢ $38 21d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 45¢ $38 21d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 84¢ $39 21d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 79¢ $36 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.49 · official $0.00 (match) · 108 history records