Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:35:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
84 0x845d…f0a3 other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$2 (+2%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%4W / 2L
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% +$16
crypto 35% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +15.8% +4.7% 67% 67% +14.1%
≤30d 6 +15.8% +4.7% 67% 67% +14.1%
≤90d 6 +15.8% +4.7% 67% 67% +14.1%
all 6 +15.8% +4.7% 67% 67% +14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.7% 67% +14.1%
10% -5.3% 67% +3.2%
15% -14.4% 67% -6.8%
20% -22.8% 67% -15.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$8 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.98 per $1 lost it wins $1.98
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage3d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $19 +$14 +70%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $11 +$8 +70%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $6 +$5 +90%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $6 −$6 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $7 +$5 +65%
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 41¢ $33 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $19 24h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 100¢ $19 24h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 58¢ $11 38h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $6 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $6 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $7 3d
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 47¢ $5 3d
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 47¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.88 · official $31.88 (match) · 12 history records