Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T13:57:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

84
0x845c…8cae
weather · 685 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$14 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$14 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses597 / 86
Open positions2
Markets (closed)683 / 685
History coverage92d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day11.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 2 History 683 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14? No 86¢ 88¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 13? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -1°C or below on March 28? No 88¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+14%)
Will Backpack launch a token by March 31? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 12 $2 $0 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 7? Jun 08 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 6? Jun 06 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 6? Jun 06 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 3? Jun 05 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 3? Jun 05 $1 $0 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on June 2? Jun 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 1? Jun 02 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 1? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 1? Jun 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 1? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on May 30? May 31 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on May 30? May 31 $1 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C or below on May 30? May 31 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 30? May 31 $1 $0 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on May 30? May 30 $1 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 29? May 29 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on May 28? May 29 $2 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 28? May 28 $1 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ma May 28 $1 −$1 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on May 27? May 28 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on May 27? May 28 $1 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on May 27? May 28 $1 $0 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on May 27? May 27 $1 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on May 26? May 27 $1 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on May 26? May 26 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on May 26? May 26 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on May 26? May 26 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on May 26? May 26 $1 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C or below on May 26? May 26 $1 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on May 26? May 26 $1 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Ma May 25 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 26? May 25 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on May 25? May 25 $1 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 25? May 25 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on May 24? May 24 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on May 23? May 24 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on May 23? May 24 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 24? May 24 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on May 24? May 24 $1 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on May 23? May 23 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on May 22? May 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 23? May 23 $1 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on May 22? May 23 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on May 22? May 22 $1 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on May 22? May 22 $1 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 65% +$2
crypto 28% +$3
sports 5% −$17
other 2% $0
world 0% −$1
finance 0% $0
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 88¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 85¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? BUY No 90¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY No 84¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY No 83¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 10? BUY No 86¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 10? BUY No 99¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 7? BUY No 99¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 7? BUY No 98¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 6? BUY No 99¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 6? BUY No 95¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 3? BUY No 80¢ $1 10d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 3? BUY No 94¢ $0 10d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on June 2? BUY No 99¢ $1 11d
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 3? BUY No 97¢ $1 11d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 1? BUY No 99¢ $1 12d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 1? BUY No 95¢ $1 12d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 1? BUY No 82¢ $1 13d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 1? BUY No 82¢ $1 13d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 1? BUY No 95¢ $1 13d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 30? BUY No 84¢ $1 14d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on May 30? BUY No 85¢ $1 14d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on May 30? BUY No 99¢ $1 14d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on May 30? BUY No 86¢ $1 15d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C or below on May 30? BUY No 95¢ $1 15d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ma SELL No 31¢ $0 15d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ma BUY No 92¢ $1 16d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on May 28? BUY No 99¢ $1 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +5.7% -4.3% 62% 25% -3.7%
≤30d 72 +0.1% -9.4% 79% 29% -10.1%
≤90d 564 -1.2% -10.7% 88% 19% -10.4%
all 683 +0.2% -9.4% 87% 20% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover11.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 20% -10.9%
10% -18.1% 6% -19.4%
15% -26.0% 5% -27.2%
20% -33.2% 4% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.60 · official $3.36 · 1761 history records