Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:31:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
84 0x845b…5c2d sports 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2,478 (+23%) realized +$2,444 · open +$34
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate39%17W / 27L
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$239per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$170est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$1,116now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$776
7 days+$1,424
14 days+$2,374
30 days+$2,374
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% +$3,455
other 10% −$1,047
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -22.0% -29.5% 30% 26% +7.6%
≤30d 44 -1.7% -11.0% 39% 36% +12.3%
≤90d 44 -1.7% -11.0% 39% 36% +12.3%
all 44 -1.7% -11.0% 39% 36% +12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 36% +12.3%
10% -19.5% 36% +1.6%
15% -27.3% 36% -8.2%
20% -34.4% 36% -17.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +24% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$397 vs −$162 · ×2.45 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.54 per $1 lost it wins $1.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$1,116
Realized+$2,444
Unrealized+$34
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses17 / 27
Est. fees paid−$170
Open positions2
Markets (closed)44 / 46
History coverage11d
Avg bet$239
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 1.5 Over 52¢ 54¢ $1,000 $1,029 +$29 (+3%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 2.5 Over 24¢ 26¢ $82 $87 +$5 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 26 $407 −$402 -99%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $102 −$100 -98%
Donyell Malen: 1+ goals Jun 25 $102 −$100 -98%
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals Jun 25 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) Jun 25 $394 −$389 -99%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $508 +$611 +120%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $51 +$5 +10%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $51 −$1 -3%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $204 −$200 -98%
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 25 $102 −$100 -98%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $455 +$2,443 +537%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $898 −$35 -4%
Switzerland vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $203 −$200 -99%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Switzerland 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $204 −$200 -98%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $398 −$391 -98%
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $400 −$395 -99%
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $452 +$457 +101%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $203 −$200 -99%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $203 −$200 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $405 +$322 +79%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $203 +$155 +76%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $204 −$200 -98%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $508 +$501 +98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $507 +$454 +90%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 20 $60 −$59 -99%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $152 −$150 -99%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $203 +$142 +70%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $51 +$188 +366%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $102 +$116 +114%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $393 +$469 +119%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $203 −$200 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $102 +$142 +140%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $203 +$161 +79%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $102 +$192 +188%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $102 +$107 +105%
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $204 +$284 +139%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $51 −$50 -97%
France vs. Senegal: France 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $142 −$140 -99%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $152 −$150 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 24¢ $84 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $1,014 1h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 57¢ $407 3h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 23¢ $102 21h
Donyell Malen: 1+ goals BUY Yes 35¢ $102 22h
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 33¢ $102 22h
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) BUY Netherlands 54¢ $394 23h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,119 23h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 2¢ $56 25h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 10¢ $50 25h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 29¢ $204 25h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $508 26h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $51 26h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 2¢ $51 26h
Ecuador leading at halftime? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 26h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Switzerland O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2,898 2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: Switzerland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 15¢ $455 2d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 2.5 SELL Over 58¢ $450 2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 56¢ $203 2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: Switzerland 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 38¢ $204 2d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 2.5 SELL Over 58¢ $412 2d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $898 3d
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 38¢ $398 3d
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 59¢ $400 3d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 53¢ $203 3d
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $248 3d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $203 3d
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 1.5 BUY Over 44¢ $203 4d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $203 4d
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 55¢ $405 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,116.23 · official $1,116.23 (match) · 68 history records