Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T03:44:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

84
0x845a…980c
crypto · 163 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$17 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$16 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$55
Realized−$16
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses71 / 90
Open positions2
Markets (closed)161 / 163
History coverage6d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day106.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 161 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$16
14 days−$16
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Down 25¢ 100¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+300%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Up 40¢ 100¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+150%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Up 47¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+113%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Up 50¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Up 51¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+96%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Up 53¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+89%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Up 56¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+79%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Down 56¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+79%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Up 60¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+67%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Down 60¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+67%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Up 62¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+61%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Up 63¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+59%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Down 63¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+59%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Down 65¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+54%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Up 68¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+47%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Up 69¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+45%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Down 69¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+45%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Up 69¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+45%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Up 70¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+43%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Down 75¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+33%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Up 26¢ 36¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+37%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Down 77¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+30%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Down 77¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+30%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Down 78¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+28%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Up 78¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 13 $9 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 13 $7 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 13 $9 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$2 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $8 +$4 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 24¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 27¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 31¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Up 37¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 29m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 161 -4.3% -13.4% 44% 39% -14.1%
≤30d 161 -4.3% -13.4% 44% 39% -14.1%
≤90d 161 -4.3% -13.4% 44% 39% -14.1%
all 161 -4.3% -13.4% 44% 39% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover106.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.4% 39% -14.1%
10% ← realistic here -21.7% 35% -22.3%
15% -29.2% 28% -29.8%
20% -36.2% 21% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.07 · official $54.73 (match) · 753 history records