Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T07:15:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x8454…331a other 556 markets active 0h ago coverage 44d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 43d only
✗ bot/MM pace (70 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$115,067 (-13%) realized −$118,065 · open +$2,998
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate29%144W / 350L
Whale WR49%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,631per market
Trades / day70.1pace
Fees−$1,063est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$107,665now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$112,847
7 days−$102,742
14 days−$101,879
30 days−$66,284
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 30% +$3,643
world 28% +$22,725
other 16% −$1,554
sports 8% −$12,475
crypto 7% +$5,093
finance 6% +$1,506
tech 4% −$1,612
culture 0% +$15
weather 0% −$290
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (70 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-25.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 149 -49.8% -54.6% 19% 15% -66.3%
≤30d 374 -17.8% -25.7% 28% 17% -18.2%
≤90d 494 -17.3% -25.1% 29% 17% -18.6%
all 494 -17.3% -25.1% 29% 17% -18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover70.1 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.1% 17% -18.6%
10% -32.3% 14% -26.4%
15% ← realistic here -38.8% 13% -33.5%
20% -44.8% 12% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 49% (≥$960) neutral
Persistence
early -1% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$662 vs −$547 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$107,665
Realized−$118,065
Unrealized+$2,998
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses144 / 350
Whale WR (big bets)49%
Est. fees paid−$1,063
Open positions198
Markets (closed)494 / 556
History coverage44d ⚠
Avg bet$1,631
Trades / day70.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 198 History 494 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran leadership change by December 31? No 52¢ 84¢ $5,507 $8,987 +$3,480 (+63%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? No 83¢ 100¢ $7,199 $8,609 +$1,410 (+20%)
Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30? No 86¢ 97¢ $4,717 $5,348 +$631 (+13%)
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 40¢ 76¢ $2,357 $4,497 +$2,140 (+91%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 74¢ 99¢ $3,029 $4,028 +$998 (+33%)
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? No 74¢ 73¢ $3,789 $3,738 −$51 (-1%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $500B by December 31? No 94¢ 92¢ $3,803 $3,712 −$91 (-2%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? No 73¢ 44¢ $5,463 $3,317 −$2,147 (-39%)
Will Solana hit $60 or $140 first? $60 90¢ 86¢ $3,138 $2,994 −$144 (-5%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $2,952 $2,994 +$42 (+1%)
Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on June 30? Anthropic 83¢ 98¢ $2,490 $2,954 +$464 (+19%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 84¢ 100¢ $2,412 $2,880 +$469 (+19%)
Pete Hegseth impeached by June 30? No 94¢ 100¢ $2,543 $2,701 +$158 (+6%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 57¢ 84¢ $1,713 $2,512 +$800 (+47%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31? No 81¢ 68¢ $2,751 $2,303 −$449 (-16%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.4T by June 30? No 97¢ 98¢ $1,932 $1,970 +$38 (+2%)
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $CLAU? No 98¢ 98¢ $1,968 $1,958 −$10 (-1%)
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 100¢ $1,690 $1,867 +$178 (+11%)
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? No 81¢ 28¢ $4,862 $1,710 −$3,152 (-65%)
Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? No 65¢ 80¢ $1,234 $1,528 +$294 (+24%)
Will Reya launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 99¢ $1,446 $1,484 +$38 (+3%)
Tread FDV above $300M one day after launch No 93¢ 97¢ $1,395 $1,456 +$62 (+4%)
Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027? No 83¢ 88¢ $1,347 $1,420 +$73 (+5%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No 58¢ 70¢ $1,170 $1,410 +$240 (+21%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by December 31? Yes 81¢ 95¢ $1,167 $1,366 +$199 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 258 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Google have the highest estimated revenue for Apr 20–26, 2026? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
VCU Rams vs. Illinois Fighting Illini Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026? Jun 28 $2,460 −$2,460 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Ap Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will Donald Trump dance on May 12, 2026? Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Jun 28 $2,902 −$3,240 -112%
Will Australia send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2 Jun 28 $0 +$2 +591%
Howard Bison vs. UMBC Retrievers: O/U 139.5 Jun 28 $10,528 −$10,528 -100%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? Jun 28 $78 −$72 -92%
Nothing Ever Happens: Khamenei Jun 28 $2,831 −$2,831 -100%
High Point Panthers vs. Wisconsin Badgers: O/U 163.5 Jun 28 $1,035 −$1,035 -100%
Will Doja Cat be on Vogue's Best-Dressed list? Jun 28 $64 −$64 -100%
Pistons vs. Thunder: O/U 218.5 Jun 28 $405 −$405 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-02? Jun 28 $790 −$790 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Jun 28 $8,511 −$8,395 -99%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $479 −$479 -100%
Will Figure's F.03 robots run between 100 and 200 hours without failur Jun 28 $488 −$488 -100%
Will Damian Brennan win Saddle Bronc Riding at The American Rodeo 2026 Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will Tristen Hutchings win Bull Riding at The American Rodeo 2026 Cham Jun 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Miami Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Sebastian Korda Jun 28 $3,508 −$3,508 -100%
Will a team get 13-0'd at BLAST Rivals Fort Worth 2026? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will UK GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 0.9% and 1.2%? Jun 28 $16 −$16 -100%
Nets vs. Pistons Jun 28 $5,926 −$5,926 -100%
Will Darmstadt 98 achieve promotion from Bundesliga 2 to the Bundeslig Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Arsenal FC 0 - 0 Club Atlético de Madrid? Jun 28 $409 −$409 -100%
North Korea missile test/launch by April 30, 2026? Jun 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Drake feature Nicki Minaj on ICEMAN? Jun 28 $32 −$32 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026? Jun 28 $1,491 −$1,491 -100%
Sevilla FC vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $1,359 −$1,359 -100%
Will Kelp DAO socialize the losses? Jun 28 $19 −$19 -100%
Connecticut Huskies vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 133.5 Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Jay-Z attend the Met Gala? Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will "Lee Cronin's The Mummy" score at least 45 on the Rotten Tomatoes Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will Dan Thomas be the next First Minister of Wales following the 2026 Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Kathryn Newton as Cassie Lang? Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Hofstra Pride vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Jun 28 $797 −$797 -100%
Set Handicap: Swiatek (-1.5) vs Svitolina (+1.5) Jun 28 $1,809 −$1,809 -100%
Iran strike on Qatar by February 28, 2026? Jun 28 $9,464 −$9,464 -100%
Will FaZe Clan qualify to IEM Atlanta 2026 Playoffs? Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Romania No-Confidence vote passes? Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-02? Jun 28 $470 −$470 -100%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-2.5) Jun 28 $119 −$119 -100%
US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026? Jun 28 $710 −$710 -100%
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by Ap Jun 28 $239 −$177 -74%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Iga Swiatek vs Elina Svitolina Jun 28 $70 −$70 -100%
Clippers vs. Kings: O/U 228.5 Jun 28 $105 −$105 -100%
Sevilla FC vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $1,983 −$1,983 -100%
Will "Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle" be the #2 US Netflix movie this Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Connecticut Huskies vs. Duke Blue Devils Jun 28 $11 −$11 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026? Jun 28 $2,000 −$1,988 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tread launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL Yes 84¢ $337 22m
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $697 1h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 100¢ $6,971 1h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $4,990 1h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 83¢ $4,020 3h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 50¢ $2,030 3h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $585 4h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $794 4h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 37¢ $6 4h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 37¢ $3 4h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 37¢ $6 4h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 37¢ $52 4h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 37¢ $11 4h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 37¢ $92 4h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 37¢ $12 4h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 37¢ $3 4h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 37¢ $130 4h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 37¢ $1 4h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 37¢ $2 4h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 37¢ $3 4h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 37¢ $1 4h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 37¢ $52 4h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 35¢ $13 4h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 35¢ $22 4h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 35¢ $13 4h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 35¢ $1 4h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 35¢ $6 4h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 35¢ $7 4h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 35¢ $48 4h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 35¢ $3 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $107,665.08 · official $107,665.95 (match) · 3500 history records