Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:21:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x8454…3587 weather 409 markets active 0h ago coverage 52d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 51d only
✗ bot/MM pace (60 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$376 (+3%) realized +$379 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR68%break-even
Win rate80%330W / 83L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day59.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$178now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$5
14 days+$217
30 days+$253
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 97% −$196
sports 2% +$35
other 0% −$34
crypto 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (60 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +68%
net ROI/market (all)+8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +741.3% +661.2% 64% 55% +197.2%
≤30d 165 +54.2% +39.5% 87% 74% -5.4%
≤90d 413 +19.6% +8.2% 80% 68% -10.9%
all 413 +19.6% +8.2% 80% 68% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover59.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +8.2% 68% -10.9%
10% ← realistic here -2.2% 28% -19.4%
15% -11.6% 6% -27.2%
20% -20.3% 5% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +42% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$29 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$178
Realized+$379
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses330 / 83
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions23
Markets (closed)413 / 409
History coverage52d ⚠
Avg bet$33
Trades / day59.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 413 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on June 17? No 82¢ 80¢ $36 $35 −$1 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 17? No 82¢ 82¢ $28 $29 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 18? No 88¢ 86¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? No 85¢ 86¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 18? No 84¢ 84¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on June 17? No 77¢ 78¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? No 77¢ 66¢ $16 $13 −$2 (-14%)
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? Yes 24¢ 28¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+19%)
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Yes 2¢ 6¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+179%)
Will the New York Yankees win the 2026 World Series? Yes 7¢ 14¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+107%)
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? Yes 1¢ 4¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+497%)
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+172%)
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-27%)
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+46%)
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+79%)
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2026 World Series? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+5%)
Will the Athletics win the 2026 World Series? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+38%)
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-73%)
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-60%)
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-69%)
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-43%)
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-82%)
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on February Jun 16 $0 +$2 +928%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 5? Jun 16 $0 $0 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 75°F or below on February 19? Jun 16 $0 $0 +2%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on February 16? Jun 16 $0 $0 +1522%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 28-29°F on March 1? Jun 16 $0 $0 -201%
Will the Toronto Maple Leafs win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 16 $0 $0 +7000%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 16 $0 $0 -25%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 16 $0 +$2 +60971%
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 16 $0 $0 -537%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 16 $0 $0 +4550%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 5? Jun 06 $19 +$3 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 5? Jun 05 $57 +$8 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 5? Jun 05 $33 +$7 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 5? Jun 05 $43 +$5 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 4? Jun 05 $14 +$2 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on June 4? Jun 05 $43 +$4 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 4? Jun 05 $54 +$12 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 4? Jun 05 $83 +$26 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 4? Jun 05 $14 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 4? Jun 05 $81 +$23 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on June 4? Jun 04 $40 +$5 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 4? Jun 04 $9 +$2 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 4? Jun 04 $14 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 4? Jun 04 $19 +$3 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 3? Jun 04 $55 −$55 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 3? Jun 04 $14 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 04 $17 +$5 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 3? Jun 04 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 3? Jun 04 $59 +$13 +21%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 3? Jun 04 $14 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 3? Jun 04 $80 +$26 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 3? Jun 03 $51 +$6 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 3? Jun 03 $81 +$27 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 3? Jun 03 $15 +$5 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 2? Jun 03 $65 +$10 +15%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 03 $63 +$22 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 2? Jun 03 $80 +$18 +22%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 2? Jun 03 $71 +$7 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 2? Jun 02 $51 +$11 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 2? Jun 02 $18 +$4 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 2? Jun 02 $37 +$7 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 2? Jun 02 $72 +$16 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 1? Jun 02 $76 −$76 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 1? Jun 02 $34 +$12 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 1? Jun 02 $88 +$21 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on May 31? Jun 01 $3 +$1 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 31? Jun 01 $48 +$9 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on May 30? May 31 $70 +$11 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 84¢ $4 11m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 84¢ $4 11m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 84¢ $4 11m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 18? BUY No 84¢ $4 34m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 18? BUY No 84¢ $4 35m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 18? BUY No 84¢ $4 35m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY No 82¢ $5 41m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY No 82¢ $5 41m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY No 82¢ $5 42m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY No 82¢ $5 42m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY No 82¢ $5 42m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY No 82¢ $5 42m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 18? BUY No 84¢ $4 45m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 18? BUY No 84¢ $4 45m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 18? BUY No 84¢ $4 45m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 85¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 85¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 85¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 78¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 77¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 77¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 76¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 88¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 88¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 88¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 88¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 88¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 88¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 77¢ $4 4h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 77¢ $4 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $178.18 · official $176.03 · 3500 history records