Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T17:40:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
84 0x8452…fcf7 crypto 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$730 (-8%) realized −$704 · open −$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate50%8W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$387per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$593now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$336
14 days−$765
30 days−$820
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 87% −$537
crypto 6% −$281
other 6% −$25
politics 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-27.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -42.8% -48.3% 50% 50% +3.4%
≤30d 16 -19.7% -27.3% 50% 38% -18.2%
≤90d 16 -19.7% -27.3% 50% 38% -18.2%
all 16 -19.7% -27.3% 50% 38% -18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.3% 38% -18.2%
10% -34.3% 19% -26.0%
15% -40.6% 19% -33.1%
20% -46.4% 19% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 67% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$94 vs −$197 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$593
Realized−$704
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses8 / 8
Open positions8
Markets (closed)16 / 24
History coverage29d
Avg bet$387
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will GameStop acquire eBay? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $280 $270 −$10 (-4%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 21¢ 21¢ $69 $70 +$1 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $62 $62 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $61 $60 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $52 $52 +$0 (+1%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 25, 2026? Yes 85¢ 77¢ $37 $33 −$3 (-9%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $42 $28 −$15 (-35%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 25 $52 −$1 -2%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? Jun 22 $2,346 +$337 +14%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Jun 16 $2,045 −$1,224 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $31 −$6 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$16 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 12 $206 −$206 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $1,307 +$164 +13%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 12 $1,981 +$160 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 07 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 07 $130 −$72 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 07 $36 +$5 +15%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 07 $372 +$24 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 27 $10 +$8 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 27 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 27 $31 +$38 +121%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 21¢ $45 1h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 21¢ $25 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $62 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $64 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $26 1h
Will GameStop acquire eBay? BUY Yes 14¢ $146 1h
Will GameStop acquire eBay? BUY Yes 14¢ $146 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $63 1h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 25, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $37 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? SELL Yes 14¢ $28 3h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 3h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? SELL Yes 14¢ $10 4h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $19 3d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $603 3d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $159 3d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $10 3d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $40 3d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $917 3d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 9¢ $19 6d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $670 7d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $1 7d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $5 7d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $11 7d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $1 7d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $1 7d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $22 7d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $20 7d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $3 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $592.72 · official $592.72 (match) · 140 history records