Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T18:50:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

84
0x844e…4efd
sports · 183 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
+$22,494 +5%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$6,965 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$18
Realized+$6,965
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses102 / 80
Whale WR (big bets)46%
Est. fees paid−$5,187
Open positions1
Markets (closed)182 / 183
History coverage83d
Avg bet$2,568
Trades / day40.9
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit93%
Chart Positions 1 History 182 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$299
14 days−$6,532
30 days−$3,263
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+8%)
Indiana Fever vs. Los Angeles Sparks Los Angeles Sparks 33¢ 0¢ $5,940 $0 −$5,940 (-100%)
Celtics vs. 76ers 76ers 45¢ 0¢ $551 $0 −$551 (-100%)
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) Lakers 47¢ 0¢ $940 $0 −$940 (-100%)
Jiujiang: Fajing Sun vs Tristan Schoolkate Tristan Schoolkate 64¢ 0¢ $1,567 $0 −$1,567 (-100%)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 5.5 Under 56¢ 0¢ $1,954 $0 −$1,954 (-100%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 Under 64¢ 0¢ $16,684 $0 −$16,684 (-100%)
Canadiens vs. Lightning Lightning 56¢ 0¢ $1,300 $0 −$1,300 (-100%)
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5 Under 50¢ 0¢ $299 $0 −$299 (-100%)
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-24? Yes 80¢ 0¢ $2,880 $0 −$2,880 (-100%)
Spread: Pistons (-8.5) Magic 49¢ 0¢ $9,711 $0 −$9,711 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev Andrey Rublev 44¢ 0¢ $3,120 $0 −$3,120 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Trail Blazers 64¢ 0¢ $4,274 $0 −$4,274 (-100%)
Madrid Open: Adolfo Vallejo vs Flavio Cobolli Adolfo Vallejo 29¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Raptors 44¢ 0¢ $1,760 $0 −$1,760 (-100%)
Thunder vs. Lakers Lakers 34¢ 0¢ $1,020 $0 −$1,020 (-100%)
Ducks vs. Golden Knights Ducks 45¢ 0¢ $3,600 $0 −$3,600 (-100%)
Libema Open, Qualification: Benjamin Bonzi vs Bernard Tomic Bernard Tomic 31¢ 0¢ $930 $0 −$930 (-100%)
Madrid Open: Anhelina Kalinina vs Kamilla Rakhimova Kamilla Rakhimova 38¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5 Under 44¢ 0¢ $1,931 $0 −$1,931 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Novak Djokovic Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 33¢ 0¢ $990 $0 −$990 (-100%)
Spread: Spurs (-12.5) Trail Blazers 50¢ 0¢ $996 $0 −$996 (-100%)
Cavaliers vs. Pistons Pistons 70¢ 0¢ $9,053 $0 −$9,053 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5 Jun 07 $304 −$299 -98%
Libema Open, Qualification: Benjamin Bonzi vs Bernard Tomic Jun 07 $930 −$930 -100%
Birmingham: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 07 $428 +$759 +177%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 5.5 Jun 07 $1,980 −$1,954 -99%
Venezuela vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $993 +$943 +95%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5 May 31 $1,963 −$1,931 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev May 31 $3,155 −$3,120 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $1,629 +$371 +23%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $2,089 +$2,688 +129%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Brandon Nakashima May 30 $1,623 +$375 +23%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $948 +$751 +79%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $2,897 −$2,880 -99%
Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $1,651 +$1,044 +63%
Roland Garros ATP: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Novak Djokovic May 24 $1,010 −$990 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Taylor Fritz vs Nishesh Basavareddy May 24 $1,451 +$1,249 +86%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $980 +$661 +67%
Indiana Fever vs. Los Angeles Sparks May 14 $5,944 −$5,940 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 14 $9,105 −$9,053 -99%
Ducks vs. Golden Knights May 13 $6,088 −$3,600 -59%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 13 $2,288 +$5,712 +250%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Brandon Nakashima vs Nikoloz Basilashvili May 11 $1,951 +$2,962 +152%
Golden Knights vs. Ducks May 11 $3,041 +$2,455 +81%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 11 $2,022 +$1,125 +56%
Hurricanes vs. Flyers May 11 $2,321 +$959 +41%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $2,520 +$901 +36%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 11 $3,040 +$2,312 +76%
O/U 2.5 Rounds May 10 $103 +$94 +91%
Fight to Go the Distance? May 10 $592 +$1,387 +234%
Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians May 10 $1,306 +$1,650 +126%
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) May 10 $941 −$940 -100%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 10 $1,040 −$1,020 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Alexei Popyrin vs Jakub Mensik May 09 $922 +$1,376 +149%
Oilers vs. Ducks Apr 30 $448 +$339 +76%
Spread: Oilers (-1.5) Apr 30 $205 +$239 +117%
Canadiens vs. Lightning Apr 30 $1,317 −$1,300 -99%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 30 $1,784 −$1,760 -99%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres Apr 29 $2,461 +$1,419 +58%
Jiujiang: Fajing Sun vs Tristan Schoolkate Apr 29 $1,581 −$1,567 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Apr 29 $5,189 −$5,189 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Apr 29 $2,160 −$2,160 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Apr 29 $4,500 −$4,500 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Athletics Apr 29 $1,650 +$1,526 +92%
Spread: Spurs (-12.5) Apr 29 $1,011 −$996 -98%
Hawks vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5 Apr 29 $139 +$31 +22%
Bruins vs. Sabres Apr 29 $1,190 +$1,331 +112%
Wild vs. Stars Apr 29 $668 +$688 +103%
Madrid Open: Adolfo Vallejo vs Flavio Cobolli Apr 27 $100 −$100 -100%
Ostrava: Marco Cecchinato vs Daniel Michalski Apr 27 $34 +$23 +67%
Lightning vs. Canadiens Apr 27 $113 +$97 +86%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 25 $4,321 −$4,274 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 89% +$30,614
crypto 7% −$28,561
other 5% +$4,911
politics 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $17 1h
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 50¢ $304 6d
Libema Open, Qualification: Benjamin Bonzi vs Bernard Tomic BUY Bernard Tomic 31¢ $408 7d
Libema Open, Qualification: Benjamin Bonzi vs Bernard Tomic BUY Bernard Tomic 31¢ $5 7d
Libema Open, Qualification: Benjamin Bonzi vs Bernard Tomic BUY Bernard Tomic 31¢ $465 7d
Libema Open, Qualification: Benjamin Bonzi vs Bernard Tomic BUY Bernard Tomic 31¢ $7 7d
Libema Open, Qualification: Benjamin Bonzi vs Bernard Tomic BUY Bernard Tomic 31¢ $5 7d
Libema Open, Qualification: Benjamin Bonzi vs Bernard Tomic BUY Bernard Tomic 31¢ $4 7d
Libema Open, Qualification: Benjamin Bonzi vs Bernard Tomic BUY Bernard Tomic 31¢ $1 7d
Libema Open, Qualification: Benjamin Bonzi vs Bernard Tomic BUY Bernard Tomic 31¢ $14 7d
Libema Open, Qualification: Benjamin Bonzi vs Bernard Tomic BUY Bernard Tomic 31¢ $2 7d
Libema Open, Qualification: Benjamin Bonzi vs Bernard Tomic BUY Bernard Tomic 31¢ $7 7d
Libema Open, Qualification: Benjamin Bonzi vs Bernard Tomic BUY Bernard Tomic 31¢ $3 7d
Libema Open, Qualification: Benjamin Bonzi vs Bernard Tomic BUY Bernard Tomic 31¢ $9 7d
Birmingham: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak SELL Otto Virtanen 99¢ $1,188 7d
Birmingham: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak BUY Otto Virtanen 35¢ $428 7d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 56¢ $1,980 7d
Venezuela vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $1,936 7d
Venezuela vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 52¢ $80 7d
Venezuela vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 52¢ $32 7d
Venezuela vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 51¢ $147 7d
Venezuela vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 51¢ $3 7d
Venezuela vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 51¢ $15 7d
Venezuela vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 51¢ $3 7d
Venezuela vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 51¢ $119 7d
Venezuela vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 51¢ $15 7d
Venezuela vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 51¢ $120 7d
Venezuela vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 51¢ $3 7d
Venezuela vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 51¢ $1 7d
Venezuela vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 51¢ $16 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 16 +2.7% -7.1% 56% 56% -21.9%
≤90d 182 +12.0% +1.3% 56% 55% -8.2%
all 182 +12.0% +1.3% 56% 55% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover40.9 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.3% 55% -8.2%
10% -8.4% 53% -17.0%
15% ← realistic here -17.2% 51% -25.0%
20% -25.3% 45% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.11 · official $18.11 (match) · 3500 history records