Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:34:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x8445…0d52 politics 133 markets active 2h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$28 (-0%) realized −$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate5%7W / 126L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$286per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 45% −$21
other 42% −$17
sports 5% +$8
crypto 5% −$2
tech 3% −$1
economics 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 27 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 127 -3.5% -12.6% 2% 2% -9.7%
all 133 -1.2% -10.6% 5% 4% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 4% -9.6%
10% -19.1% 4% -18.3%
15% -27.0% 2% -26.2%
20% -34.1% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$1 · ×12.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses7 / 126
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)133 / 133
History coverage112d
Avg bet$286
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 133 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $31 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $27 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $286 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $254 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $271 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $31 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 08 $45 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 08 $29 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $607 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $43 $0 -0%
Will Elaine Culotti win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 06 $35 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $46 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $264 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 01 $24 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $42 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $487 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 30 $24 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $704 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $496 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $254 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $246 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $286 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $705 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $212 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 22 $517 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $255 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 20 $263 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $276 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $268 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $559 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $763 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $209 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $196 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 12 $199 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $227 $0 -0%
Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election May 11 $242 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $243 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 10 $247 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $509 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $206 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 05 $201 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $275 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $244 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $250 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $243 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 02 $543 −$1 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $256 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $231 $0 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $246 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $1,014 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $31 1h
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 4d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $27 4d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $27 4d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $26 6d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $26 7d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $27 8d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 9d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $38 9d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $38 9d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $31 9d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 10d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $45 10d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $45 10d
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $29 10d
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $29 11d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $33 11d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $33 11d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $43 11d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $43 11d
Will Elaine Culotti win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $35 11d
Will Elaine Culotti win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $35 12d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $46 13d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $46 14d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $26 15d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $26 17d
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $24 17d
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $24 17d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $42 17d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $42 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 407 history records