Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:12:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

84
0x8444…1cf9
weather · 450 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$11,044 -20%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$6,937 · open −$3,588
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2,038
Realized−$6,937
Unrealized−$3,588
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses33 / 780
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$39
Open positions7
Markets (closed)813 / 450
History coverage26d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day129.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%
Chart Positions 7 History 813 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10,819
7 days−$13,007
14 days−$4,675
30 days−$6,937
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Yes 53¢ 22¢ $3,851 $1,567 −$2,284 (-59%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? Yes 59¢ 15¢ $1,200 $302 −$898 (-75%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Yes 29¢ 9¢ $275 $89 −$186 (-68%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 June 8-14? Yes 20¢ 4¢ $120 $27 −$93 (-78%)
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-11%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 14? Yes 48¢ 24¢ $50 $25 −$25 (-51%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $100 $2 −$98 (-98%)
Bitcoin above 81,800 on May 5, 4PM ET? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Nets vs. Knicks Nets 13¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on February 2? Yes 37¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - January 27, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $67,000 on March 10? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Solana reach $190 in November? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Timberwolves vs. Jazz Jazz 27¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - January 26, 1PM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Down 26¢ 0¢ $95 $0 −$95 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 4? Up 13¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Spirit (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group B Spirit 9¢ 0¢ $56 $0 −$56 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C or higher on May 5? No 50¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on April 3? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $47 $0 −$47 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 February 9-15? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - January 30, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
76ers vs. Cavaliers 76ers 24¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Cavaliers vs. Wizards Wizards 17¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Up 9¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin above 81,800 on May 5, 4PM ET? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Nets vs. Knicks Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on February 2? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 27, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $67,000 on March 10? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Solana reach $190 in November? Jun 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Jazz Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 26, 1PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $95 −$95 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Spirit (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Grou Jun 13 $56 −$69 -123%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C or higher on May 5? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on April 3? Jun 13 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 February 9-15? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 30, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
76ers vs. Cavaliers Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Wizards Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Raptors vs. Pacers Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 24? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 12? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2,500 on January 30? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 5? Jun 13 $40 −$40 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 26, 4PM ET Jun 13 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 10? Jun 13 $175 −$175 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 14? Jun 13 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on March 13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ethereum hit $2k or $3k first? Jun 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 30? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 7AM ET Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 30, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3PM ET Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Mavericks vs. Wizards Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of XRP be between $2.00 and $2.10 on January 28? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 on March 12? Jun 13 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in January? Jun 13 $60 −$60 -100%
Pelicans vs. Grizzlies Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 4AM ET Jun 13 $40 −$40 -100%
Bulls vs. Cavaliers Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 April 27-May 3? Jun 13 $60 −$65 -109%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 March 30-April 5? Jun 13 $128 −$128 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $55 −$55 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 3? Jun 13 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.00 on January 27? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 41% +$4,591
weather 17% −$856
other 16% −$1,795
politics 11% −$960
world 5% −$174
finance 3% −$397
tech 3% −$205
sports 2% −$107
culture 1% −$122
economics 1% −$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by 9% or more? SELL Yes 49¢ $5 53m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? SELL No 55¢ $19 53m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 14? SELL No 52¢ $36 53m
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by 9% or more? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 59m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 55¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 51¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 51¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 55¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 51¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 51¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 51¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 51¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 51¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 55¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? SELL No 56¢ $9 1h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by 9% or more? SELL Yes 50¢ $10 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 29¢ $29 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? SELL No 44¢ $35 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 14? SELL No 50¢ $39 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 14? SELL No 38¢ $43 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju SELL Yes 95¢ $57 1h
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $96 1h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by 9% or more? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 43¢ $35 2h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY Yes 53¢ $32 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 14? BUY No 39¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 14? BUY No 39¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 14? BUY No 39¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 14? BUY No 39¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 14? BUY No 39¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-55.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 511 -75.8% -78.1% 2% 1% -59.7%
≤30d 813 -50.4% -55.1% 4% 3% -20.0%
≤90d 813 -50.4% -55.1% 4% 3% -20.0%
all 813 -50.4% -55.1% 4% 3% -20.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover129.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -55.1% 3% -20.0%
10% ← realistic here -59.4% 2% -27.7%
15% -63.3% 2% -34.7%
20% -66.9% 2% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,038.28 · official $2,038.28 (match) · 3500 history records