Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:23:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
84 0x8444…4500 sports 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$12 (+3%) realized +$7 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate47%8W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% +$35
other 33% +$19
crypto 4% −$14
politics 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +6.5% -3.6% 47% 41% -0.1%
≤30d 17 +6.5% -3.6% 47% 41% -0.1%
≤90d 17 +6.5% -3.6% 47% 41% -0.1%
all 17 +6.5% -3.6% 47% 41% -0.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.6% 41% -0.1%
10% -12.8% 41% -9.7%
15% -21.3% 35% -18.4%
20% -29.0% 24% -26.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 44% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$10 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses8 / 9
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)17 / 18
History coverage3d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score No 57¢ 68¢ $26 $32 +$5 (+20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $19 +$27 +140%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$20 +66%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $36 −$36 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 AND Will England win on 2026-0 Jun 17 $30 $0 +2%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $21 +$16 +78%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $43 −$24 -55%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $5 −$2 -33%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $70 +$26 +37%
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $3 −$2 -60%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$1 -11%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $3 +$1 +23%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $3 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $3 −$2 -97%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 +$18 +344%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $28 +$13 +46%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$14 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $19 −$4 -22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $27 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 98¢ $47 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $19 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 99¢ $50 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 7h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $36 8h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 AND Will England win on 2026-0 SELL 44¢ $30 8h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Felix Auger-Aliassime 99¢ $37 9h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 55¢ $21 13h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 AND Will England win on 2026-0 BUY 42¢ $30 13h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 56¢ $23 23h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 19¢ $4 23h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 27¢ $5 23h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $75 23h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $50 24h
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 24h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 SELL Over 63¢ $21 24h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 SELL Over 36¢ $9 24h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score SELL No 55¢ $19 24h
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 27h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? SELL Yes 13¢ $3 27h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $20 28h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $20 28h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $10 28h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 29h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 29h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 29h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 SELL Over 91¢ $23 29h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 20¢ $5 29h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $40 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.85 · official $30.92 (match) · 35 history records