Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:44:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x8443…2988 sports 219 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,530 (+5%) realized +$1,530 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate39%85W / 134L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$140per market
Trades / day19.4pace
Fees−$304est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 20d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% +$322
other 26% +$460
crypto 22% −$1,391
world 4% +$55
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 +19.5% +8.1% 42% 38% +1.8%
≤30d 219 -4.5% -13.6% 39% 36% -11.2%
≤90d 219 -4.5% -13.6% 39% 36% -11.2%
all 219 -4.5% -13.6% 39% 36% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 36% -11.2%
10% -21.8% 33% -19.7%
15% -29.4% 28% -27.4%
20% -36.3% 25% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -7% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$147 vs −$97 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,530
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses85 / 134
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$304
Open positions0
Markets (closed)219 / 219
History coverage20d
Avg bet$140
Trades / day19.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 219 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 Jun 18 $1,192 +$223 +19%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Phi Jun 18 $296 −$296 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $704 −$687 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $103 −$100 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 18 $283 −$272 -96%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 18 $299 −$22 -7%
Will Wydad Athletic Club vs. FathUnionSport end in a draw? Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $163 −$163 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $382 −$15 -4%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $90 +$391 +436%
Will FathUnionSport win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $103 +$386 +375%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. Jun 18 $232 +$241 +104%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $300 −$300 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $209 −$209 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $666 +$234 +35%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $202 +$824 +408%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $198 +$180 +91%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $97 −$97 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $103 −$103 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $103 −$103 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $334 +$958 +287%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $211 −$179 -85%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $205 +$4 +2%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $225 +$492 +219%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $474 +$150 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$5 -24%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $113 +$264 +234%
OG Anunoby: Assists O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $130 −$130 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $21 +$89 +431%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 111.5 Jun 14 $67 +$63 +95%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals v Jun 14 $64 −$64 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $82 −$82 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$22 +681%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $29 +$13 +45%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 -2%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $4 −$1 -25%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $11 −$7 -61%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $10 −$4 -41%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $28 −$22 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 13 $89 +$4 +4%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. San Jun 13 $52 −$52 -100%
Will OC Safi vs. Kawkab AC end in a draw? Jun 13 $98 −$98 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $129 +$43 +34%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $98 −$7 -7%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Jun 13 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Kawkab AC win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $140 −$140 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 SELL Under 94¢ $1,415 48m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 78¢ $1,192 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 21¢ $298 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 40¢ $406 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 11¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $268 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $15 1h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies SELL New York Mets 51¢ $276 1h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets 53¢ $299 1h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Phi BUY No 47¢ $296 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $8 3h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $98 4h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $65 6h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 6h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 74¢ $367 6h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $382 6h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $480 6h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $90 7h
Will FathUnionSport win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 99¢ $489 8h
Will Wydad Athletic Club vs. FathUnionSport end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $100 11h
Will FathUnionSport win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 20¢ $103 11h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. BUY No 48¢ $232 24h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 85¢ $832 27h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $209 27h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 100¢ $1,025 28h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $378 28h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 60¢ $97 28h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $198 28h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 19¢ $202 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 494 history records