Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:37:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x8441…05a9 politics 68 markets active 0h ago coverage 544d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$7 (+0%) realized +$8 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate66%44W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$109now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$455
7 days−$455
14 days−$455
30 days−$455
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 39% −$11
other 32% +$4
crypto 24% −$457
culture 2% +$3
sports 2% +$25
world 1% $0
tech 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-27.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -45.1% -50.4% 37% 21% -62.8%
≤30d 19 -45.1% -50.4% 37% 21% -62.8%
≤90d 19 -45.1% -50.4% 37% 21% -62.8%
all 67 -20.3% -27.9% 66% 15% -21.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.9% 15% -21.3%
10% -34.8% 10% -28.9%
15% -41.1% 7% -35.7%
20% -46.8% 6% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -59% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$28 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

544d coverage
Net worth$109
Realized+$8
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses44 / 23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)67 / 68
History coverage544d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$3 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 20 $21 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 20 $15 +$4 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$5 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 20 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 20 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$19 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 20 $211 −$200 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 20 $206 −$100 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 20 $106 +$3 +3%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 23 $50 +$22 +45%
Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more? Feb 01 $50 +$5 +10%
Ducks vs. Canucks Jan 30 $10 +$13 +127%
Ducks vs. Canucks: O/U 6.5 Jan 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Nothing Ever Happens: September Oct 01 $10 +$3 +30%
Will Trump talk to Friedrich Merz in September? Sep 01 $20 −$10 -50%
Will Spain win the UEFA Women's Euro? Jul 16 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Travis Scott's album 'JACKBOYS 2' have over 250k sales in its fir Jul 16 $50 $0 +1%
Will Union win the most seats in the next German election? Jul 16 $19 +$1 +8%
Will Alice Weidel be the next Chancellor of Germany? Jul 16 $22 +$1 +5%
Will Trump impose tariffs on Canada in the first 100 days? Feb 15 $19 +$1 +3%
Will Trump impose tariffs on China in the first 100 days? Feb 15 $19 +$1 +3%
Will Trump impose tariffs on Mexico in the first 100 days? Feb 15 $19 +$1 +3%
Will Biden finish his term? Feb 01 $0 $0 -100%
Will Biden pardon Adam Schiff? Feb 01 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Biden pardon Fauci? Feb 01 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Trump appeal his hush money conviction? Feb 01 $16 +$2 +9%
SpaceX Starship 7th launch by Jan 10? Feb 01 $19 +$1 +6%
Trump nominates Elon Musk to Cabinet? Feb 01 $20 $0 +2%
Will Barack Obama attend presidential inauguration? Feb 01 $19 +$1 +8%
Will Kamala Harris attend presidential inauguration? Feb 01 $19 +$1 +4%
Will Biden pardon Ross Ulbricht? Feb 01 $20 $0 +3%
Will Biden pardon Edward Snowden? Feb 01 $20 $0 +2%
Will Joe Biden attend presidential inauguration? Feb 01 $20 $0 +2%
Will Biden pardon Hillary? Feb 01 $19 +$1 +3%
Will Elon Musk attend presidential inauguration? Feb 01 $19 +$1 +3%
Will Biden pardon Trump? Feb 01 $20 $0 +2%
Will Biden pardon Diddy? Feb 01 $20 $0 +1%
Global heat increase between 1.28°C and 1.30°C for 2024? Feb 01 $19 +$1 +5%
Will Biden pardon SBF? Feb 01 $19 +$1 +6%
Will Biden pardon Julian Assange? Feb 01 $20 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 11¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $8 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $21 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $10 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $10 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $4 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $10 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $21 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $103 1h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $148 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $109.06 · official $109.06 (match) · 168 history records