Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:36:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x8441…bc73 crypto 27 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (3473 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,874 (+22%) realized +$2,876 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -66% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -74% what you keep after slip
Net edge-74%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate20%18W / 73L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$489per market
Trades / day3473.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$132now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$2,231
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (3473 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-69.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 91 -66.4% -69.6% 20% 19% -9.6%
≤30d 91 -66.4% -69.6% 20% 19% -9.6%
≤90d 91 -66.4% -69.6% 20% 19% -9.6%
all 91 -66.4% -69.6% 20% 19% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3473.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -69.6% 19% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -72.5% 11% -18.2%
15% -75.2% 7% -26.1%
20% -77.6% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -66% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -32% → late -100% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
128.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$205 vs −$51 · ×4.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$132
Realized+$2,876
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses18 / 73
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)91 / 27
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$489
Trades / day3473.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 91 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Up 63¢ 50¢ $104 $84 −$20 (-19%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Down 51¢ 50¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 65 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $79 −$79 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $69 −$69 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $427 −$427 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $65 −$65 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $79 −$79 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $67 −$67 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $116 −$116 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $84 −$84 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 23, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $4 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 1m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $132.15 · official $132.15 (match) · 3500 history records