Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:57:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x843f…fd29 crypto 728 markets active 1h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,214 (-3%) realized −$2,214 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate75%543W / 185L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day8.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$834
7 days+$834
14 days+$834
30 days+$834
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$2,504
other 1% +$229
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +29.2% +16.9% 57% 54% +8.6%
≤30d 28 +29.2% +16.9% 57% 54% +8.6%
≤90d 46 +7.4% -2.9% 48% 46% +5.4%
all 728 -2.1% -11.4% 75% 24% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 24% -12.7%
10% -19.9% 20% -21.1%
15% -27.6% 16% -28.7%
20% -34.7% 15% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$81 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,214
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses543 / 185
Open positions0
Markets (closed)728 / 728
History coverage124d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day8.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 728 Trades
no open positions (162 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 19 $136 +$244 +179%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 19 $312 +$413 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 19 $133 −$130 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 19 $314 −$300 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 19 $207 −$197 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 19 $211 +$686 +325%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 19 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 19 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 19 $258 +$212 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 19 $104 +$146 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 19 $208 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 19 $415 −$400 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 19 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 19 $103 −$100 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $354 +$229 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 19 $106 +$473 +447%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 19 $104 +$129 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 19 $207 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 19 $103 +$72 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 19 $182 −$175 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 19 $154 +$103 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 19 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 19 $67 +$75 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 19 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$22 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$19 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$26 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 19 $50 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Mar 23 $25 +$21 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Mar 23 $20 +$38 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Mar 23 $26 −$26 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Mar 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Mar 23 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Mar 23 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Mar 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Mar 23 $20 +$12 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Mar 23 $15 +$31 +209%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Mar 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Mar 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Mar 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Mar 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Mar 23 $20 +$17 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Mar 23 $20 +$18 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Mar 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Mar 23 $18 −$18 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Mar 23 $35 −$35 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Mar 08 $57 −$56 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Mar 08 $200 −$197 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Mar 08 $142 +$115 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Mar 08 $150 +$112 +75%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $136 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $133 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $312 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $106 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $103 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $583 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $354 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $106 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $104 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $102 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1799 history records