Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T17:52:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
84 0x843c…2c05 other 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 585d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$46 (+4%) realized −$33 · open +$79
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate61%19W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$189now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$72
7 days+$72
14 days+$72
30 days+$72
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% +$43
sports 39% +$80
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +49.4% +35.1% 88% 88% +39.9%
≤30d 8 +49.4% +35.1% 88% 88% +39.9%
≤90d 16 +17.8% +6.6% 69% 69% +25.0%
all 31 +2.2% -7.5% 61% 61% -5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 61% -5.1%
10% -16.4% 61% -14.2%
15% -24.4% 55% -22.5%
20% -31.9% 39% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +38% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$27 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

585d coverage
Net worth$189
Realized−$33
Unrealized+$79
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses19 / 12
Open positions4
Markets (closed)31 / 36
History coverage585d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 67¢ 80¢ $100 $120 +$20 (+20%)
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Yes 66¢ $0 $48 +$48 (+0%)
Désiré Doué: 3+ shots Yes 20¢ $0 $11 +$11 (+0%)
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $10 +$5 +50%
Dani Olmo: 2+ shots Jun 22 $20 +$7 +36%
Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ shots Jun 21 $20 +$13 +65%
Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ shots Jun 21 $20 +$5 +24%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 5+ shots Jun 21 $10 +$14 +134%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 21 $20 +$20 +97%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ shots Jun 21 $20 +$18 +90%
Leandro Trossard: 3+ shots Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $20 +$7 +34%
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $10 −$9 -87%
Will RC Deportivo La Coruña win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $15 +$10 +67%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Vikings vs. Steelers May 17 $25 +$31 +122%
Eagles vs. Buccaneers May 17 $50 +$27 +54%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-10-01? Oct 01 $70 −$70 -100%
Jaguars vs. 49ers Sep 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Rams vs. Eagles Sep 26 $50 +$27 +54%
Steelers vs. Patriots Sep 26 $50 +$46 +92%
Cowboys vs. Bears Sep 21 $35 −$35 -100%
Ravens vs. Chargers Nov 26 $50 +$35 +70%
Broncos vs. Raiders Nov 25 $40 +$17 +43%
Vikings vs. Bears Nov 25 $20 +$12 +61%
Cardinals vs. Seahawks Nov 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Chelsea win on 2024-11-23? Nov 24 $50 +$22 +45%
Will Man City win on 2024-11-23? Nov 24 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Man Utd win on 2024-11-24? Nov 24 $40 −$40 -100%
Seahawks vs. 49ers Nov 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson? Nov 16 $60 +$42 +70%
Commanders vs. Eagles Nov 15 $20 +$10 +49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 67¢ $49 1h
Désiré Doué: 3+ shots BUY Yes 48¢ $25 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 9h
Leandro Trossard: 3+ shots BUY Yes 54¢ $10 23h
Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ shots BUY Yes 60¢ $20 23h
Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ shots BUY Yes 80¢ $20 23h
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 29h
Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ shots BUY Yes 52¢ $20 29h
Dani Olmo: 2+ shots BUY Yes 73¢ $20 29h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 50¢ $20 30h
Mikel Oyarzabal: 5+ shots BUY Yes 42¢ $10 30h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 43¢ $31 30h
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 74¢ $20 35d
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-05-17? SELL Yes $1 35d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 36d
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 36d
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 36d
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 36d
Will RC Deportivo La Coruña win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $15 36d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 36d
Will Barcelona win on 2025-10-01? BUY Yes 58¢ $70 263d
Eagles vs. Buccaneers BUY Eagles 65¢ $50 269d
Jaguars vs. 49ers BUY 49ers 62¢ $50 269d
Vikings vs. Steelers BUY Steelers 45¢ $25 269d
Cowboys vs. Bears BUY Cowboys 54¢ $35 274d
Rams vs. Eagles BUY Eagles 65¢ $50 274d
Steelers vs. Patriots BUY Steelers 52¢ $50 274d
Ravens vs. Chargers BUY Ravens 59¢ $50 574d
Broncos vs. Raiders BUY Broncos 70¢ $40 574d
Cardinals vs. Seahawks BUY Cardinals 53¢ $20 574d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $189.01 · official $189.01 (match) · 57 history records