Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:57:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x843c…4863 other 2748 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 14d only
✗ bot/MM pace (241 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$2,136 (+1%) realized +$1,911 · open +$225
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate4%7W / 177L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$135per market
Trades / day241.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$244now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$11
14 days+$227
30 days+$227
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 96% −$2
crypto 4% +$192
other 0% +$141
weather 0% $0
politics 0% +$11
sports 0% +$111
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (241 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-36.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 126 -66.7% -69.8% 2% 2% -73.8%
≤30d 184 -29.9% -36.6% 4% 3% -9.5%
≤90d 184 -29.9% -36.6% 4% 3% -9.5%
all 184 -29.9% -36.6% 4% 3% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover241.2 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -36.6% 3% -9.5%
10% -42.6% 3% -18.1%
15% ← realistic here -48.2% 3% -26.0%
20% -53.3% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 82% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +40% → late -100% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$0 · ×1143.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×45.2 per $1 lost it wins $45.2
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$244
Realized+$1,911
Unrealized+$225
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses7 / 177
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions325
Markets (closed)184 / 2748
History coverage14d ⚠
Avg bet$135
Trades / day241.2
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 325 History 184 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Game 2: Any Player Penta Kill? Yes 0¢ 50¢ $0 $11 +$11 (+49850%)
Map 1: Odd/Even Total Kills? Even 0¢ 50¢ $0 $10 +$10 (+49850%)
Total Kills Over/Under 42.5 in Game 2? Over 0¢ 50¢ $0 $10 +$10 (+49850%)
Game 2: Any Player Quadra Kill? Yes 0¢ 50¢ $0 $10 +$10 (+49850%)
Map 1: Odd/Even Total Kills? Odd 0¢ 50¢ $0 $9 +$9 (+49850%)
StarCraft II: Cure vs sOs - Map 1 Winner sOs 0¢ 48¢ $0 $9 +$9 (+48150%)
Series: Anyone's Legend Kill Handicap (-10.5) vs Weibo Gaming (+10.5) Weibo Gaming 0¢ 47¢ $0 $9 +$9 (+47350%)
Counter-Strike: BRAWLSTARS vs Clutchain Female (BO1) - ESEA Advanced Europe Regular Season Clutchain Female 0¢ 50¢ $0 $9 +$9 (+49900%)
Counter-Strike: Nerve of Cow vs BRAWLSTARS (BO1) - ESEA Advanced Europe Regular Season Nerve of Cow 0¢ 50¢ $0 $9 +$9 (+49900%)
Total Kills Over/Under 51.5 in Game 2? Over 0¢ 50¢ $0 $9 +$9 (+49850%)
Total Kills Over/Under 32.5 in Game 2? Under 0¢ 50¢ $0 $9 +$9 (+49850%)
Map 1: Odd/Even Total Kills? Even 0¢ 50¢ $0 $9 +$9 (+49800%)
Game 3: Both Teams Beat Roshan? Yes 0¢ 50¢ $0 $8 +$8 (+49850%)
Valorant: TEC Esports vs All Gamers - Map 1 Winner TEC Esports 0¢ 50¢ $0 $8 +$8 (+49750%)
Set Handicap: Samsonova (-1.5) vs Siegemund (+1.5) Samsonova 0¢ 44¢ $0 $8 +$8 (+43650%)
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? Over 0¢ 50¢ $0 $8 +$8 (+49850%)
Exact Score: GV CD San José 3 - 2 Club The Strongest? Yes 0¢ 50¢ $0 $6 +$6 (+49899%)
Blinkova vs. Jovic: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 0¢ 29¢ $0 $6 +$6 (+29150%)
Map 1: Odd/Even Total Rounds? Even 0¢ 50¢ $0 $4 +$4 (+49400%)
Set Handicap: Zidansek (-1.5) vs Friedsam (+1.5) Zidansek 0¢ 48¢ $0 $4 +$4 (+47800%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 0¢ 50¢ $0 $3 +$3 (+49850%)
Duncan/Ribero vs. Bianchi/Sheehy: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Under 0¢ 15¢ $0 $3 +$3 (+14850%)
ITF Gaborone: Tanisha Kashyap vs D'Estree Colalancia DEstree Colalancia 0¢ 48¢ $0 $3 +$3 (+48399%)
Duncan/Ribero vs. Bianchi/Sheehy: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Under 0¢ 48¢ $0 $3 +$3 (+47650%)
ITF Women Gaborone: Completed Match: Abigayel Vosloo vs Leilany Ipunesso No 0¢ 15¢ $0 $3 +$3 (+14850%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 175 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $116 in May? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on May 23? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Will Power win the 2026 Indianapolis 500? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will "Drop Dead - Olivia Rodrigo" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 15°C or below on May 24? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will "In Bloom" by Lilas Ikuta (The Apothecary Diaries Season 2) win B Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on May 25? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will "DAS GETRÄUMTE ABENTEUER by Valeska GRISEBACH" win Palme d'Or at Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 26? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on May 24? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will "Nope" be the top US Netflix movie this week? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C or below on May 25? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 24? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on May 24? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will XRP reach $1.55 on May 23? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on May 23? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 on May 22? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on May Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will MIBR win CS Asia Championships 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on May 26? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on May 24? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 30°C on May 24? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Exact Score: Vegalta Sendai 1 - 3 Yokohama FC? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 64-65°F on May 24? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on May 26? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the median home value in Chicago be between $347,000 and $348,000 Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 27? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Game 2: Any Player Ultra Kill? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will "NAGI NOTES by FUKADA Koji" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Fil Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will another margin of victory outcome occur in the next Maltese gener Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on May 23? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Julian Champagnie: Points O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will paiN Gaming Academy win CD 2026 Split 1? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $70 in May? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 26°C or below on May 2 Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $86,000 on May 25? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $120 and $130 on May 27? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Steven Fisk finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 THE CJ CUP Byron Nel Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Drake have exactly 1 song in the Billboard top 10? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or higher on May 23? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on May 25? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C or higher on May 23? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $176 in May? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on May 24? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will there be 6 or more major space weather events this week? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on May 26? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on May 24? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Taylor Hall lead the 2026 Stanley Cup Finals in points? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 50m
Will the biggest blowout win in the 2026 Stanley Cup Finals be by 7 or BUY Yes 0¢ $0 57m
Will the biggest blowout win in the 2026 Stanley Cup Finals be by 8 or BUY Yes 0¢ $0 59m
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–J BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Game 2: Any Player Quadra Kill? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Game 2: Any Player Quadra Kill? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Game 1: Odd/Even Total Kills? BUY Odd 0¢ $0 3h
Game 1: Odd/Even Total Kills? BUY Odd 0¢ $0 3h
Will Team Liquid win LCS 2026 Spring? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will Team Liquid win LCS 2026 Spring? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will LYON win LCS 2026 Spring? BUY No 0¢ $0 5h
Will LYON win LCS 2026 Spring? BUY No 0¢ $0 5h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 3 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 3 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 3 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Spread: Cabo Verde (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 0¢ $0 5h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 3 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debu BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debu BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Will Dan Rooney be the Republican nominee for OK-01? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 9h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 9h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 9h
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 12h
Will Isack Hadjar win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 15h
Will Sharon Brown advance from the CA-04 primary election? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 15h
Will Sharon Brown advance from the CA-04 primary election? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 15h
Will Rasmus Andersson lead the 2026 Stanley Cup Finals in points? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 17h
Will Dragoș Pîslaru be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 17h
Will Noah Hanifin lead the 2026 Stanley Cup Finals in points? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 17h
Will Bad Bunny attend UFC Freedom 250? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $244.26 · official $244.21 (match) · 3500 history records