Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:09:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
84 0x843b…d7dd other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 62d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$204 (+23%) realized +$205 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate71%5W / 2L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$110per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$630now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$225
7 days+$225
14 days+$225
30 days+$225
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% +$197
tech 1% $0
sports 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +88.7% +70.7% 100% 100% +103.0%
≤30d 2 +88.7% +70.7% 100% 100% +103.0%
≤90d 7 +21.0% +9.5% 71% 57% +66.7%
all 7 +21.0% +9.5% 71% 57% +66.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.5% 57% +66.7%
10% -1.0% 57% +50.8%
15% -10.6% 43% +36.2%
20% -19.3% 14% +22.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 96% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +84% too few recent
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +84% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$15 · ×3.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.65 per $1 lost it wins $7.65
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$630
Realized+$205
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses5 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage62d
Avg bet$110
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $631 $630 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $170 +$220 +130%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 29 $12 +$6 +48%
Will Arsenal win a trophy this season? May 06 $31 −$30 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Ann Li vs Shuai Zhang May 05 $5 +$2 +35%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 30 $10 $0 -0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $8 +$3 +34%
Will Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on A Apr 28 $3 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 45m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 40¢ $438 46m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 71¢ $40 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 72¢ $10 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 72¢ $10 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 73¢ $40 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 98¢ $390 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 37¢ $51 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 43¢ $102 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 56¢ $17 8h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 67¢ $12 3d
Will Arsenal win a trophy this season? BUY No 16¢ $31 54d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Ann Li vs Shuai Zhang SELL Shuai Zhang 64¢ $7 55d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Ann Li vs Shuai Zhang BUY Shuai Zhang 46¢ $5 55d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $10 60d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $10 61d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? SELL Yes 82¢ $10 62d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? BUY Yes 60¢ $8 62d
Will Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on A BUY Yes 100¢ $3 62d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $630.07 · official $643.62 · 22 history records