Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:06:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

84 0x843b…41f4 sports 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 61d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$61 (+6%) realized +$66 · open −$5

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip

Net edge-34%after slip

Net WR29%break-even

Win rate29%2W / 5L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$131per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Fees−$14est.

Kalshi-fit88%portable

Net worth$495now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$268

7 days+$268

14 days+$268

30 days+$245

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +29%

net ROI/market (all)-34.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+40.1%	+26.8%	50%	50%	+70.1%
≤30d	3	-6.6%	-15.5%	33%	33%	+58.5%
≤90d	7	-27.5%	-34.4%	29%	29%	+1.5%
all	7	-27.5%	-34.4%	29%	29%	+1.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-34.4%	29%	+1.5%
10%	-40.7%	29%	-8.2%
15%	-46.4%	29%	-17.1%
20%	-51.7%	29%	-25.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 97% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +12% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -27% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$190 vs −$63 · ×3.01 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.2 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage

Net worth$495

Realized+$66

Unrealized−$5

Win rate (resolved)29%

Wins / losses2 / 5

Est. fees paid−$14

Open positions1

Markets (closed)7 / 8

History coverage61d

Avg bet$131

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 7 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	Portugal	51¢	50¢	$500	$495	−$5 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spread: Norway (-2.5)	Jun 17	$204	+$368	+180%
Spread: Norway (-3.5)	Jun 16	$102	−$100	-98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	May 29	$23	−$22	-98%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on April 17?	Apr 18	$10	+$13	+127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Apr 17	$90	−$87	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Apr 17	$101	−$97	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Apr 17	$10	−$9	-94%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	BUY Portugal	51¢	$507	1h
Spread: Norway (-2.5)	BUY Norway	35¢	$204	20h
Spread: Norway (-3.5)	BUY Norway	19¢	$102	20h
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	BUY Yes	42¢	$23	18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	BUY Down	48¢	$90	60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	BUY Down	3¢	$1	60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	BUY Down	57¢	$100	60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	BUY Down	19¢	$10	60d
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on April 17?	BUY Up	43¢	$10	60d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $495.10 · official $495.10 (match) · 11 history records