Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:22:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x8435…ad98 crypto 152 markets active 2h ago coverage 588d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$5 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate24%36W / 112L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$66
7 days+$51
14 days+$0
30 days+$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 44% −$50
other 42% +$94
sports 8% −$20
politics 3% −$50
world 3% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +1.7% -8.0% 29% 26% -0.4%
≤30d 106 -2.4% -11.7% 26% 25% -3.4%
≤90d 106 -2.4% -11.7% 26% 25% -3.4%
all 148 -9.9% -18.5% 24% 23% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.5% 23% -12.1%
10% -26.3% 22% -20.5%
15% -33.4% 22% -28.2%
20% -39.9% 21% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$6 · ×2.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

588d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized+$5
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses36 / 112
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)148 / 152
History coverage588d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 148 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-6%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 44¢ 42¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 90 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $23 −$8 -32%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $111 +$20 +18%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $13 −$5 -38%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $6 +$5 +82%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $8 +$48 +588%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 −$7 -35%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4 $0 -1%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $29 −$10 -35%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$22 +213%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $35 −$21 -60%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $5 $0 +6%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $15 +$7 +43%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $41 +$42 +101%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $37 −$10 -27%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $15 −$2 -12%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $10 $0 -4%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $30 −$1 -2%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 −$8 -80%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$23 +226%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $10 −$2 -15%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $8 −$1 -7%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $41 −$12 -29%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $46 −$20 -45%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $81 +$43 +54%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $8 +$32 +388%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $20 −$3 -13%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $17 −$16 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $18 −$17 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $9 −$9 -98%
Ilkley: Taylah Preston vs Harmony Tan Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Libema Open: Emma Navarro vs Caty McNally Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 05 $8 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 05 $8 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 05 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 05 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 05 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 05 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 05 $10 +$10 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $50 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $6 3h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 13¢ $6 6h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 16¢ $3 6h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 31¢ $10 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $120 8h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 8h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 49¢ $11 8h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 8h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 26¢ $6 8h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? SELL Yes 7¢ $7 9h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 9h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 10h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? SELL Yes 92¢ $56 11h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 12h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 12h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 13¢ $8 12h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 43¢ $10 12h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 28¢ $9 12h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 24¢ $8 12h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 8¢ $4 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 32¢ $10 12h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 44¢ $5 28h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 44¢ $10 28h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 24¢ $8 30h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 29¢ $10 30h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 18¢ $10 30h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 17¢ $9 32h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 18¢ $4 32h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 94¢ $4 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.22 · official $69.22 (match) · 479 history records