Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:05:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x8433…9738 sports 67 markets active 2h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$594 (-7%) realized −$594 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate31%21W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$130per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$74est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$403
7 days−$573
14 days+$597
30 days−$316
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% −$637
other 25% +$616
crypto 12% −$213
world 4% −$229
finance 3% −$133
politics 1% −$115
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-33.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -16.3% -24.3% 47% 29% -23.7%
≤30d 34 -14.8% -22.9% 38% 29% -14.0%
≤90d 67 -26.7% -33.7% 31% 24% -17.1%
all 67 -26.7% -33.7% 31% 24% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.7% 24% -17.1%
10% -40.1% 24% -25.1%
15% -45.9% 24% -32.3%
20% -51.2% 22% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -39% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$152 vs −$85 · ×1.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$594
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses21 / 46
Est. fees paid−$74
Open positions0
Markets (closed)67 / 67
History coverage66d
Avg bet$130
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 67 Trades
no open positions (18 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $268 −$30 -11%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $412 +$38 +9%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 16 $73 −$72 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $259 +$241 +93%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $289 −$285 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $299 −$295 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $233 +$17 +7%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $231 +$19 +8%
Game Handicap: HRTS (-1.5) vs Eintracht Spandau (+1.5) Jun 13 $131 +$69 +52%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 13 $95 +$105 +109%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $122 +$78 +64%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $206 −$204 -99%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) Jun 13 $149 +$151 +101%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 13 $217 −$214 -99%
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs Boston Breach - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $83 −$82 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $49 −$48 -98%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $555 −$60 -11%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $321 +$1,403 +438%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $212 −$12 -6%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $55 −$54 -98%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Jun 06 $55 −$54 -98%
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $147 +$153 +104%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 05 $5 +$2 +37%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 05 $9 +$8 +93%
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of Jun 04 $223 −$219 -98%
Sweden vs. Greece: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $259 +$241 +93%
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports (BO5) - North American Challen Jun 04 $169 −$167 -99%
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens - Game 3 Winner Jun 04 $126 −$126 -100%
Set Handicap: Berrettini (-2.5) vs Arnaldi (+2.5) Jun 03 $102 −$3 -3%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $615 −$301 -49%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 01 $326 −$321 -98%
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 22 $58 −$56 -98%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 19 $116 −$115 -99%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 19 $123 −$120 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 16? May 17 $30 +$50 +166%
Will Israel be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 15 $91 $0 +0%
Will Finland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 15 $147 $0 +0%
Will Australia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 15 $189 −$1 -1%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 15 $34 −$33 -98%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? May 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA (+1.5) May 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026? May 13 $38 −$38 -100%
LoL: Ultra Prime vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana May 13 $49 −$49 -100%
Military action against Iran ends by April 17, 2026? May 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 13 $52 −$36 -70%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 13 $51 −$27 -52%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 13 $85 −$31 -36%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 15 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Iran strike Kuwait by April 30, 2026? Apr 15 $33 −$33 -100%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs 3DMAX - Map 2 Winner Apr 15 $54 −$54 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $63 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $107 1h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY No 38¢ $55 16h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY No 38¢ $1 16h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY No 38¢ $17 16h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $289 47h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $259 47h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 59¢ $299 47h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 33¢ $102 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 52¢ $131 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 30¢ $92 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY Gen.G 55¢ $139 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $100 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $106 3d
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 33¢ $6 3d
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 3d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P BUY Eintracht Spandau 47¢ $95 3d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 61¢ $94 3d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 61¢ $8 3d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 61¢ $20 3d
Game Handicap: HRTS (-1.5) vs Eintracht Spandau (+1.5) BUY Eintracht Spandau 65¢ $131 3d
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs Boston Breach - Game 3 Winner BUY Boston Breach 41¢ $83 3d
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 40¢ $102 4d
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 35¢ $36 4d
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 4d
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 4d
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 4d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster 24¢ $49 4d
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) BUY Team WE 49¢ $149 4d
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 303 history records