Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:55:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
84 0x8432…8360 world 74 markets active 2h ago coverage 574d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$8,454 (+12%) realized +$9,150 · open −$696
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate70%35W / 15L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$991per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$16,617now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$442
7 days+$449
14 days+$4,497
30 days+$5,361
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 83% +$9,189
tech 9% −$70
other 5% −$814
politics 2% +$16
finance 0% +$18
crypto 0% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +6.2% -3.9% 100% 33% -2.7%
≤30d 13 +19.3% +8.0% 92% 69% +7.2%
≤90d 50 -7.1% -15.9% 70% 52% +5.5%
all 50 -7.1% -15.9% 70% 52% +5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 52% +5.5%
10% -24.0% 26% -4.6%
15% -31.3% 14% -13.8%
20% -38.0% 12% -22.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +17% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$1,300) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$341 vs −$193 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.12 per $1 lost it wins $4.12
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

574d coverage
Net worth$16,617
Realized+$9,150
Unrealized−$696
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses35 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Open positions24
Markets (closed)50 / 74
History coverage574d
Avg bet$991
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 89¢ 89¢ $12,096 $12,109 +$12 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 77¢ 56¢ $2,313 $1,668 −$645 (-28%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 35¢ 40¢ $839 $964 +$124 (+15%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $600 $750 +$150 (+25%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 18¢ 14¢ $300 $241 −$59 (-20%)
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 7¢ 5¢ $300 $223 −$77 (-26%)
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 30¢ 33¢ $181 $197 +$16 (+9%)
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $300 $104 −$196 (-65%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $101 $82 −$18 (-18%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $100 $80 −$20 (-20%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $40 $54 +$14 (+36%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $51 $41 −$10 (-19%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 85¢ 81¢ $40 $38 −$2 (-5%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $16 $36 +$20 (+124%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $12 $14 +$2 (+14%)
Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 4¢ 4¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-7%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-9%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-15%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-31%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-34%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-42%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-55%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-58%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 26 $2,490 +$336 +14%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 24 $3,057 +$107 +4%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 22 $408 +$7 +2%
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 15 $300 +$47 +16%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $2,800 +$513 +18%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $710 +$902 +127%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 15 $2,000 +$1,688 +84%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $4,032 +$898 +22%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 11 $904 +$51 +6%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 01 $1,318 −$1,300 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $4,188 +$902 +22%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? Jun 01 $712 +$148 +21%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 27 $6,177 +$1,062 +17%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? May 25 $64 −$64 -100%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $403 +$4 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 23 $200 +$41 +20%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? May 23 $792 +$90 +11%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 23 $1,314 +$329 +25%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? May 22 $200 +$5 +3%
Nothing Ever Happens: May May 21 $100 +$4 +4%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 19 $260 −$260 -100%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $204 +$156 +76%
Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 17 $812 +$332 +41%
Will Moldova be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $396 +$304 +77%
Will Italy be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 15 $764 −$760 -99%
Will Italy be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 15 $103 −$1 -0%
Will Moldova be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 14 $119 −$116 -98%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? May 13 $70 +$39 +56%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 10 $3,000 +$218 +7%
Will Trump say "Rare earth" or "Mineral" this week? May 10 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the US strike 7 countries in 2026? May 03 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April? May 01 $1,040 +$119 +11%
Another EU country restricts U.S. military aircraft by April 30? May 01 $100 +$20 +20%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? May 01 $1,100 +$79 +7%
Will Trump talk to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in April? May 01 $603 +$68 +11%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? May 01 $2,996 +$981 +33%
Putin meets with Iranian officials by May 15? Apr 27 $300 +$197 +66%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Apr 25 $140 −$140 -100%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Apr 25 $20 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 25 $5,524 +$1,436 +26%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $4,266 +$807 +19%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Apr 18 $100 +$18 +18%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 17 $140 +$3 +2%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 13 $100 +$26 +26%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t Apr 13 $40 +$14 +35%
Will Marcel Ciolacu win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? Apr 11 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 88¢ $1,457 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 88¢ $1,090 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 88¢ $88 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $1,944 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 57¢ $507 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 58¢ $296 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 61¢ $10 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 61¢ $3 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 61¢ $43 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 61¢ $23 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 77¢ $500 45h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 99¢ $554 46h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 77¢ $1,463 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $1,461 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 77¢ $350 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 95¢ $2,000 3d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 90¢ $1,506 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 38¢ $414 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 36¢ $408 5d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 90¢ $16 5d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 90¢ $180 5d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 90¢ $1,350 5d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 90¢ $31 5d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 90¢ $1 5d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 90¢ $45 5d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 90¢ $0 5d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 90¢ $0 5d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 90¢ $1 5d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 90¢ $383 5d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 87¢ $660 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16,617.09 · official $16,535.82 (match) · 395 history records