trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +7.3% | -2.9% | 100% | 0% | -2.9% |
| ≤30d | 4 | +13.0% | +2.3% | 100% | 25% | +0.5% |
| ≤90d | 19 | -25.9% | -33.0% | 63% | 11% | -11.6% |
| all | 19 | -25.9% | -33.0% | 63% | 11% | -11.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -33.0% | 11% | -11.6% |
| 10% | -39.4% | 5% | -20.0% |
| 15% | -45.3% | 0% | -27.8% |
| 20% | -50.6% | 0% | -34.8% |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | Jun 21 | $201 | +$15 | +7% |
| Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? | Jun 13 | $201 | +$15 | +7% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 | May 22 | $101 | +$10 | +10% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? | May 22 | $101 | +$28 | +28% |
| Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? | May 15 | $103 | −$120 | -117% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET | May 09 | $5 | $0 | +7% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET | May 06 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Will the Government shutdown end by November 15? | May 06 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | May 06 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 7 | May 05 | $101 | +$14 | +14% |
| Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than | May 05 | $90 | +$4 | +4% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | May 01 | $4 | $0 | +7% |
| Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026? | Apr 30 | $200 | +$8 | +4% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET | Apr 29 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April | Apr 29 | $7 | $0 | -0% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET | Apr 29 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | Apr 29 | $100 | +$9 | +9% |
| Will the Government shutdown end by November 30? | Apr 26 | $1 | $0 | +10% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on November 10? | Apr 26 | $2 | $0 | +0% |