Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:57:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x8431…bd3a other 43 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$24 (-2%) realized −$44 · open +$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%10W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$260now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% +$216
sports 43% −$215
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -12.3% -20.7% 27% 27% -11.1%
≤30d 37 -12.3% -20.7% 27% 27% -11.1%
≤90d 37 -12.3% -20.7% 27% 27% -11.1%
all 37 -12.3% -20.7% 27% 27% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.7% 27% -11.1%
10% -28.3% 27% -19.6%
15% -35.2% 27% -27.4%
20% -41.5% 24% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$72 vs −$27 · ×2.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$260
Realized−$44
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses10 / 27
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions6
Markets (closed)37 / 43
History coverage4d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Over 55¢ 62¢ $100 $112 +$12 (+12%)
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? Yes 17¢ 21¢ $50 $62 +$12 (+24%)
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 0 Japan? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $31 +$157 +510%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $50 +$22 +44%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 20 $51 +$157 +307%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $31 +$61 +200%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 2 Qatar? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $51 +$108 +212%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Luis Suárez: 1+ goals Jun 18 $51 −$44 -87%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $8 +$37 +474%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $41 +$35 +88%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $31 +$43 +140%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $30 −$30 -98%
Panama to score first vs. Ghana? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $61 +$72 +119%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $20 +$28 +140%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $101 13m
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 15¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 16¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 16¢ $31 3h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 20h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 21h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 26¢ $20 23h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 19¢ $51 24h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 26h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 26h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? SELL Yes 72¢ $92 46h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 23¢ $31 47h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $51 47h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 2 Qatar? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 36¢ $102 2d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 2d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 2d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $51 2d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 9¢ $21 2d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 31¢ $51 2d
Luis Suárez: 1+ goals SELL Yes 5¢ $6 2d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 28¢ $31 2d
Luis Suárez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 41¢ $51 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 2d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 17¢ $8 3d
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 21¢ $12 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $260.20 · official $260.20 (match) · 55 history records