Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:03:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x8430…9d17 politics 140 markets active 2h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$11 (+0%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate10%14W / 125L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$233per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$17
politics 33% −$14
sports 10% +$39
economics 4% −$1
tech 2% $0
world 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 11 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 100 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 0% -9.6%
all 139 -0.9% -10.3% 10% 5% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 5% -9.5%
10% -18.9% 3% -18.2%
15% -26.7% 3% -26.1%
20% -33.9% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×9.45 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses14 / 125
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)139 / 140
History coverage138d
Avg bet$233
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 139 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $37 $37 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 27 $26 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 27 $25 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 25 $224 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $521 −$1 -0%
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 22 $29 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $33 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 21 $31 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $290 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $37 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $32 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 30 $294 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $494 −$1 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $482 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $224 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 24 $460 −$1 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $239 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $228 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $205 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $438 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $226 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $191 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $257 −$1 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $200 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $188 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 15 $236 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $451 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $382 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $497 −$1 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $428 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $26 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $472 −$1 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $228 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $383 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $236 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $170 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $212 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $434 −$1 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $208 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $199 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $230 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $784 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $456 −$1 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 30 $188 $0 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $231 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $214 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio Apr 29 $247 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $250 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 22 $699 −$1 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 22 $241 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 21 $216 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $26 1h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 5h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $25 9h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 17h
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 99¢ $37 2d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $33 2d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $33 4d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $23 4d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $23 5d
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $29 5d
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $29 5d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $33 6d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $33 6d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $31 6d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $31 12d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $28 27d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $28 27d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $37 27d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $37 28d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $32 28d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $32 28d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $37 28d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $37 29d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $223 30d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $223 31d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $239 32d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $239 32d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $224 32d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $224 32d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $234 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.35 · official $37.35 (match) · 399 history records