Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:44:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x8430…3961 sports 391 markets active 0h ago coverage 33d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 32d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (96 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$13,043 (-5%) realized −$12,146 · open −$897
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate64%249W / 139L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$699per market
Trades / day95.9pace
Fees−$2,311est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,078now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$20,961
crypto 2% +$402
weather 0% −$182
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (96 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 106 -4.8% -13.8% 67% 41% -19.3%
≤30d 335 -10.7% -19.2% 63% 37% -18.9%
≤90d 388 -9.7% -18.3% 64% 38% -16.2%
all 388 -9.7% -18.3% 64% 38% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover95.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.3% 38% -16.2%
10% -26.1% 19% -24.2%
15% ← realistic here -33.3% 10% -31.5%
20% -39.8% 6% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$1,006) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$142 vs −$397 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$1,078
Realized−$12,146
Unrealized−$897
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses249 / 139
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$2,311
Open positions3
Markets (closed)388 / 391
History coverage33d ⚠
Avg bet$699
Trades / day95.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 388 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner T1 Academy 93¢ 100¢ $1,000 $1,077 +$77 (+8%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Nongshim Esports Academy 47¢ 0¢ $900 $1 −$899 (-100%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Dplus KIA Challengers 83¢ 0¢ $76 $0 −$76 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $2,196 +$473 +22%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $640 +$20 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $405 +$79 +20%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $500 +$11 +2%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $1,194 +$12 +1%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $97 +$10 +10%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $301 +$32 +10%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $36 −$35 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $200 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$7 +34%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $1,436 −$75 -5%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $2,053 −$33 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $203 +$43 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $101 +$12 +12%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $301 +$55 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $102 +$43 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $102 +$45 +44%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $657 +$34 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $510 −$59 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $420 −$18 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $102 +$14 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $203 −$25 -12%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $377 +$23 +6%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $634 −$415 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $101 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +12%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $373 −$373 -100%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $13 +$1 +8%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $1,509 −$428 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $102 +$27 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $113 +$29 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $163 −$23 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $70 +$4 +6%
Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $890 −$845 -95%
Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $956 +$104 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $112 +$43 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $112 +$43 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $122 +$27 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $60 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $123 +$54 +44%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri Jun 15 $29 −$29 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $124 −$124 -100%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $326 +$55 +17%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $841 −$841 -100%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $1,235 +$157 +13%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $888 −$512 -58%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,440 +$290 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 99¢ $100 27m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 98¢ $100 27m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 98¢ $10 27m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 97¢ $50 27m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 94¢ $50 27m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 93¢ $10 27m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 89¢ $10 28m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 92¢ $50 29m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 86¢ $20 29m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 92¢ $100 29m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 91¢ $301 29m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 90¢ $100 29m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 90¢ $100 29m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $1,248 50m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 96¢ $200 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 96¢ $503 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 95¢ $100 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 90¢ $10 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 90¢ $10 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 58¢ $101 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 55¢ $101 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 55¢ $10 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 54¢ $10 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 48¢ $102 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 48¢ $102 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 47¢ $102 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 47¢ $508 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 47¢ $102 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $1,535 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $660 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,078.25 · official $1,078.25 (match) · 3500 history records