Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:33:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x842c…cc1e sports 68 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$43 (+13%) realized +$49 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate30%19W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$38
14 days+$38
30 days+$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% +$44
other 10% −$7
tech 2% −$5
world 2% $0
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -13.6% -21.9% 31% 27% +4.2%
≤30d 64 -2.7% -12.0% 30% 27% +1.4%
≤90d 64 -2.7% -12.0% 30% 27% +1.4%
all 64 -2.7% -12.0% 30% 27% +1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 27% +1.4%
10% -20.4% 23% -8.3%
15% -28.1% 23% -17.1%
20% -35.1% 20% -25.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$2 · ×3.31 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$49
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses19 / 45
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions4
Markets (closed)64 / 68
History coverage12d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $8 −$2 (-21%)
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $4 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-92%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Nongshim Esports Academy 17¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 17 $40 −$1 -2%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $15 +$15 +97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $20 +$4 +20%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $10 +$1 +7%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$2 -31%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 −$8 -82%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -19%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $1 +$4 +468%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$3 +54%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 +$4 +42%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $10 +$13 +132%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 +$4 +43%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 $0 -11%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $23 +$24 +105%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -52%
Spread: Spurs (-20.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 +$7 +351%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs T1 (+2.5) Jun 14 $10 +$5 +52%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Neither team to score first? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-16.5) Jun 14 $2 $0 -6%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $2 −$1 -42%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $2 −$2 -91%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -79%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 +$5 +250%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -74%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $4 +$1 +18%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $4 $0 -6%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $5 −$3 -53%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $1 +$2 +197%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Neither team to score first? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $1 $0 -29%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-20.5) Jun 11 $2 +$4 +232%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group SELL Power Rangers 75¢ $40 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group BUY Power Rangers 75¢ $40 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 40¢ $2 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 37¢ $1 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 31¢ $1 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 17¢ $3 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy $5 5h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $1 9h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 12¢ $3 10h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $15 11h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 11h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 15¢ $1 12h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 40¢ $3 12h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 45¢ $7 12h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 SELL Over $2 13h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $10 14h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 14h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 BUY Over 16¢ $10 14h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 14h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 88¢ $12 15h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 63¢ $4 15h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 80¢ $8 15h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 57¢ $20 16h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 16h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Yakult Brothers 91¢ $3 26h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Yakult Brothers 83¢ $2 26h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 15¢ $1 26h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 75¢ $2 36h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 60¢ $5 36h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 28¢ $2 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.36 · official $10.36 (match) · 194 history records