Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T17:54:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
84 0x842b…b366 other 80 markets active 6d ago coverage 43d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 42d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (80 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$10,727 (+22%) realized +$10,309 · open +$418
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +82% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +34% what you keep after slip
Net edge+34%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate44%29W / 37L
Whale WR47%big bets
Drawdown77%max
Avg bet$609per market
Trades / day79.8pace
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$1,603now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 43d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% +$1,165
world 19% −$45
politics 10% +$2,137
tech 10% −$3,453
finance 7% +$2,395
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (80 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+64.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -97.7% -97.9% 0% 0% -97.9%
≤30d 26 +8.0% -2.3% 38% 35% -10.8%
≤90d 66 +81.6% +64.3% 44% 36% -5.4%
all 66 +81.6% +64.3% 44% 36% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover79.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +64.3% 36% -5.4%
10% +48.6% 21% -14.4%
15% ← realistic here +34.3% 20% -22.7%
20% +21.1% 18% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +82% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 47% (≥$697) neutral
Persistence
early +158% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
24.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$350 vs −$226 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$1,603
Realized+$10,309
Unrealized+$418
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses29 / 37
Whale WR (big bets)47%
Open positions24
Markets (closed)66 / 80
History coverage43d ⚠
Avg bet$609
Trades / day79.8
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Silver (SI) settle over $85 on the final trading day of June 2026? No 73¢ 96¢ $787 $1,030 +$243 (+31%)
Will Silver (SI) settle over $80 on the final trading day of June 2026? No 62¢ 95¢ $257 $399 +$142 (+55%)
Freddie Mac IPO before 2027? Yes 14¢ 8¢ $71 $43 −$28 (-40%)
Will Dejan Joveljic win 2026 MLS Most Valuable Player? Yes 3¢ 40¢ $3 $41 +$38 (+1180%)
Will Thomas Müller win 2026 MLS Most Valuable Player? Yes 4¢ 34¢ $4 $34 +$30 (+717%)
Will LIV Golf announce shutdown in 2026? No 29¢ 43¢ $13 $20 +$6 (+48%)
Will Philip Zinckernagel win 2026 MLS Most Valuable Player? Yes 3¢ 13¢ $3 $14 +$10 (+325%)
Will there be no de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $9 $7 −$1 (-16%)
Will James Comey be arrested before 2027? No 73¢ 84¢ $4 $4 +$1 (+15%)
Will PayPal be acquired before 2027? No 68¢ 78¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+15%)
Will Lionel Messi win 2026 MLS Most Valuable Player? Yes 40¢ 22¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-45%)
Will Trump designate Brazil's PCC or CV as a terrorists by December 31? No 3¢ 2¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-35%)
Will Silver (SI) settle at $60-$70 in June? Yes 8¢ 62¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+686%)
Will Seattle Seahawks visit the White House in 2026? No 32¢ 71¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+125%)
Will Louisiana use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? No 13¢ 8¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-38%)
Will Sergio Busquets win 2026 MLS Most Valuable Player? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-74%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-94%)
Will Ohio use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? No 8¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-31%)
Will ByteDance have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-97%)
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+12%)
Will Amazon have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-97%)
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? Yes 72¢ 1¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-98%)
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-35%)
Weed rescheduled by June 30? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-55%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 16 $3,664 −$3,578 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Jun 15 $1,914 −$100 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $1,166 −$1,166 -100%
Will Silver (SI) settle at $80-$90 in June? Jun 14 $697 +$129 +18%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $400 −$400 -100%
Will BULK launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $211 −$16 -8%
Will Maddy Perez die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 12 $309 +$246 +80%
Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 12 $1,376 +$269 +20%
Will Emma Chamberlain be on Vogue's Best-Dressed list? Jun 12 $128 −$104 -82%
Will Caesars Entertainment, Inc. be acquired before 2027? Jun 12 $2,618 −$762 -29%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $88 in May? Jun 12 $268 −$264 -98%
Will Silver (SI) settle at $70-$80 in June? Jun 11 $5,547 −$252 -4%
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? Jun 10 $66 −$21 -32%
Applied Intuition IPO before 2027? Jun 04 $308 +$30 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,756 +$2,549 +145%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 29 $1,598 +$2,495 +156%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? May 29 $1,719 −$346 -20%
Will OpenAI announce a tablet in 2026? May 29 $102 +$11 +11%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? May 28 $826 −$197 -24%
Will Zoom Video Communications be acquired before 2027? May 28 $845 +$254 +30%
Will Snapchat be acquired before 2027? May 28 $181 −$31 -17%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? May 27 $129 −$8 -6%
Will Faye die in Euphoria: Season 3? May 26 $103 −$41 -39%
Will Tom Homan be arrested before 2027? May 24 $4,421 +$727 +16%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May? May 24 $104 −$11 -11%
Will Trump speak to Nicolás Maduro in May? May 24 $0 $0 +552%
Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027? May 19 $489 −$39 -8%
Will Trump announce a U.S.-China AI Safety Channel? May 19 $233 +$1 +0%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 18 $769 +$28 +4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? May 18 $1,357 −$237 -17%
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? May 17 $379 +$17 +4%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? May 17 $77 −$3 -4%
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? May 17 $1,515 −$230 -15%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $90 in May? May 16 $216 +$251 +116%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $92 in May? May 15 $611 +$120 +20%
Epic Games IPO before 2027? May 15 $142 +$32 +22%
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before September 30, 20 May 14 $2 +$39 +1778%
Will Reform UK win at least 2200 council seat elections in the 2026 Un May 11 $4 +$1 +13%
Will Utah use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midte May 10 $2,816 +$2,194 +78%
KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31? May 09 $1 $0 -14%
Will USD fall to 1.6M Iranian rials by May 31? May 09 $16 −$1 -6%
Will OpenAI announce glasses in 2026? May 08 $1 $0 -13%
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by June 30? May 07 $10 +$87 +879%
Will South Carolina use a new congressional map for the 2026 United St May 06 $168 −$2 -1%
Will Gavin Newsom be arrested before 2027? May 05 $754 −$25 -3%
Will Hillary Clinton be arrested before 2027? May 05 $319 −$37 -12%
Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026? May 05 $113 −$5 -4%
Will Rihanna be on Vogue's Best-Dressed list? May 05 $478 −$85 -18%
Will Mahmoud Khalil be arrested before 2027? May 05 $124 −$1 -1%
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31? May 05 $638 +$75 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Silver (SI) settle over $85 on the final trading day of June 2026 SELL No 91¢ $37 6d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? BUY No 22¢ $141 6d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? BUY No 30¢ $156 6d
Will Silver (SI) settle over $85 on the final trading day of June 2026 SELL No 76¢ $76 6d
Will Silver (SI) settle over $85 on the final trading day of June 2026 SELL No 76¢ $75 6d
Will Silver (SI) settle over $80 on the final trading day of June 2026 SELL No 75¢ $66 7d
Will Silver (SI) settle over $85 on the final trading day of June 2026 SELL No 85¢ $39 7d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? BUY No 37¢ $15 7d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? BUY No 36¢ $238 7d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? BUY No 35¢ $175 7d
Will Silver (SI) settle over $80 on the final trading day of June 2026 SELL No 78¢ $463 7d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? BUY No 35¢ $98 7d
Will Silver (SI) settle over $80 on the final trading day of June 2026 SELL No 87¢ $76 7d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? BUY No 52¢ $490 7d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? BUY No 52¢ $3 7d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? BUY No 52¢ $473 7d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? BUY No 52¢ $75 7d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? BUY No 52¢ $238 7d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? BUY No 53¢ $21 7d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? BUY No 52¢ $354 7d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? SELL Yes 52¢ $25 7d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? SELL Yes 58¢ $25 7d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 62¢ $4 7d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 59¢ $52 7d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? SELL No 40¢ $709 7d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? SELL No 46¢ $25 7d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? SELL No 40¢ $357 7d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? BUY No 41¢ $89 7d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? BUY No 50¢ $2 7d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? BUY No 50¢ $2 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,602.52 · official $1,602.52 (match) · 3500 history records