Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:12:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
84 0x842b…587b sports 1491 markets active 12d ago coverage 528d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Covers last 528d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$104 (-3%) realized −$104 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%584W / 907L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$3
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% −$140
other 25% +$37
world 0% −$10
crypto 0% +$3
tech 0% −$3
finance 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 26 -48.3% -53.2% 23% 23% -50.2%
≤90d 823 -6.2% -15.1% 34% 34% -17.3%
all 1491 +0.3% -9.2% 39% 39% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 39% -12.2%
10% -17.9% 39% -20.6%
15% -25.9% 38% -28.3%
20% -33.1% 37% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

528d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$104
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses584 / 907
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1491 / 1491
History coverage528d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1491 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -99%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 11 $0 $0 +140%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bolivia vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: China PR (-1.5) Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Cyprus (-1.5) Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Benin win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Togo vs. Benin end in a draw? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 09 $3 +$3 +101%
Spread: Croatia (-2.5) Jun 09 $2 +$4 +250%
Will Hong Kong SAR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $3 +$2 +82%
Will Armenia win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $4 +$3 +79%
Will Qingdao Xihaian FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Washington Spirit (-1.5) May 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ismaily SC vs. Pharco FC end in a draw? May 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-05-29? May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Republic of Ireland (-1.5) May 31 $2 −$2 -100%
CD Universidad de Concepción vs. CD Unión La Calera: O/U 3.5 May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Botafogo FR leading at halftime? May 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Republic of Ireland vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 May 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: FK Bodø/Glimt (-1.5) May 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Will ZED FC win on 2026-05-29? May 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $3 +$2 +93%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-05-29? May 30 $2 +$3 +133%
Will Tala'ea El Gaish SC win on 2026-05-28? May 28 $3 +$2 +56%
Egypt vs. Russia: Both Teams to Score May 28 $2 +$3 +109%
Tala'ea El Gaish SC vs. Wadi Degla SC: Both Teams to Score May 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will CS Independiente Rivadavia win on 2026-05-27? May 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Republic of Ireland win on 2026-05-28? May 28 $2 $0 -18%
Spread: Club Libertad (-1.5) May 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: CS Cienciano (-1.5) May 28 $2 −$2 -100%
CA Peñarol vs. Independiente Santa Fe: Both Teams to Score May 28 $3 +$2 +85%
Independiente del Valle vs. CA Rosario Central: Both Teams to Score May 28 $3 +$2 +96%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Both Teams to Score May 27 $3 +$2 +96%
Grêmio FBPA vs. Montevideo City Torque: Both Teams to Score May 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Grêmio FBPA (-1.5) May 27 $2 −$2 -100%
CA San Lorenzo de Almagro vs. Recoleta FC: Both Teams to Score May 27 $3 +$2 +64%
Club Universitario de Deportes vs. CD Tolima: Both Teams to Score May 27 $6 +$4 +80%
Spread: São Paulo FC (-1.5) May 27 $3 +$2 +85%
Will Ventforet Kōfu win on 2026-05-23? May 25 $2 −$2 -100%
CA River Plate vs. CA Belgrano: Both Teams to Score May 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC: Both Teams to Score May 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Operário Ferroviário EC vs. Criciúma EC: Both Teams to Score May 25 $2 +$3 +127%
Will US Lecce win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $3 +$2 +92%
Bologna FC 1909 vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 2.5 May 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Beijing Guoan FC (-1.5) May 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Haras El Hodood SC win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 53¢ $3 12d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 29¢ $1 17d
Mexico leading at halftime? BUY No 52¢ $3 18d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 19d
Bolivia vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $3 19d
Bolivia vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $0 19d
Mexico leading at halftime? BUY No 51¢ $3 19d
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY No 41¢ $0 19d
Spread: Cyprus (-1.5) BUY Cyprus 29¢ $1 20d
Will Hong Kong SAR win on 2026-06-09? BUY No 55¢ $3 20d
Spread: China PR (-1.5) BUY China PR 25¢ $1 20d
Spread: Croatia (-2.5) BUY Croatia 28¢ $2 20d
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia 49¢ $3 20d
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 43¢ $2 20d
Spread: China PR (-1.5) BUY China PR 25¢ $0 20d
Will Benin win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 20d
Will Togo vs. Benin end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 20d
Will Armenia win on 2026-06-06? BUY No 55¢ $4 23d
Will Qingdao Xihaian FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 30d
CD Universidad de Concepción vs. CD Unión La Calera: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 25¢ $1 31d
Will ZED FC win on 2026-05-29? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 31d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-05-29? BUY No 43¢ $2 31d
Will Iraq win on 2026-05-29? BUY No 29¢ $1 31d
Spread: Washington Spirit (-1.5) BUY Washington Spirit 36¢ $2 31d
Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 51¢ $3 32d
Will Republic of Ireland win on 2026-05-28? SELL No 34¢ $2 32d
Will Tala'ea El Gaish SC win on 2026-05-28? BUY No 64¢ $3 32d
Will Ismaily SC vs. Pharco FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $0 32d
Tala'ea El Gaish SC vs. Wadi Degla SC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $2 32d
Will Ismaily SC vs. Pharco FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3459 history records